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Estimating a model of forward-looking behavior with discrete choice experiments: The case of lifetime hunting license demand

Author

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  • Kim, Yusun
  • Reeling, Carson
  • Widmar, Nicole J.O.
  • Lee, John G.

Abstract

Sales of deer licenses, one of the most important revenue sources for wildlife management at the Indiana Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), have been declining for a decade. To increase its revenue, the IDNR is considering introducing a new lifetime deer license for sale. This license would allow hunters to harvest deer (and possibly other species) each year for the rest of their lives in exchange for a relatively large up-front fee. The forward-looking nature of the decision to buy a lifetime license means hunters' choice behavior is necessarily dynamic. Prior work estimates preferences for long-lived, durable goods using standard discrete choice experiments underpinned by static models. We derive a dynamic discrete choice model of lifetime license purchases. Our model informs the design of a novel, dynamic discrete choice experiment, generating data that allows us to consistently estimate individuals’ forward-looking preferences for lifetime hunting licenses. We use our model to estimate the price of lifetime licenses that maximizes IDNR revenues.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Yusun & Reeling, Carson & Widmar, Nicole J.O. & Lee, John G., 2023. "Estimating a model of forward-looking behavior with discrete choice experiments: The case of lifetime hunting license demand," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eejocm:v:47:y:2023:i:c:s1755534523000155
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100414
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