IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eejocm/v47y2023ics1755534523000155.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating a model of forward-looking behavior with discrete choice experiments: The case of lifetime hunting license demand

Author

Listed:
  • Kim, Yusun
  • Reeling, Carson
  • Widmar, Nicole J.O.
  • Lee, John G.

Abstract

Sales of deer licenses, one of the most important revenue sources for wildlife management at the Indiana Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), have been declining for a decade. To increase its revenue, the IDNR is considering introducing a new lifetime deer license for sale. This license would allow hunters to harvest deer (and possibly other species) each year for the rest of their lives in exchange for a relatively large up-front fee. The forward-looking nature of the decision to buy a lifetime license means hunters' choice behavior is necessarily dynamic. Prior work estimates preferences for long-lived, durable goods using standard discrete choice experiments underpinned by static models. We derive a dynamic discrete choice model of lifetime license purchases. Our model informs the design of a novel, dynamic discrete choice experiment, generating data that allows us to consistently estimate individuals’ forward-looking preferences for lifetime hunting licenses. We use our model to estimate the price of lifetime licenses that maximizes IDNR revenues.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Yusun & Reeling, Carson & Widmar, Nicole J.O. & Lee, John G., 2023. "Estimating a model of forward-looking behavior with discrete choice experiments: The case of lifetime hunting license demand," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eejocm:v:47:y:2023:i:c:s1755534523000155
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100414
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755534523000155
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100414?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ericka Costa & Dario Montemurro & Diego Giuliani, 2019. "Consumers’ willingness to pay for green cars: a discrete choice analysis in Italy," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 2425-2442, October.
    2. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    3. Zha, Donglan & Yang, Guanglei & Wang, Wenzhong & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn, 2020. "Appliance energy labels and consumer heterogeneity: A latent class approach based on a discrete choice experiment in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller, 1993. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 497-529.
    5. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Mira, Pedro, 2010. "Dynamic discrete choice structural models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 38-67, May.
    6. M. K. Haener & D. Dosman & W.L. Adomowicz & P.C. Boxall, 2001. "Can Stated Preference Methods be used to Value Attributes of Subsistence Hunting by Aboriginal Peoples? A Case Study in Northern Saskatchewan," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1334-1340.
    7. Paula Horne & Leena Petäjistö, 2003. "Preferences for Alternative Moose Management Regimes among Finnish Landowners: A Choice Experiment Approach," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 79(4), pages 472-482.
    8. Aaron J. Staples & Carson J. Reeling & Nicole J. Olynk Widmar & Jayson L. Lusk, 2020. "Consumer willingness to pay for sustainability attributes in beer: A choice experiment using eco‐labels," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 591-612, October.
    9. John Lai & Nicole O. Widmar & Courtney Bir, 2020. "Eliciting Consumer Willingness to Pay for Home Internet Service: Closing the Digital Divide in the State of Indiana," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 263-282, June.
    10. David S. Brookshire & Larry S. Eubanks & Alan Randall, 1983. "Estimating Option Prices and Existence Values for Wildlife Resources," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 59(1), pages 1-15.
    11. MacKenzie, John, 1990. "Conjoint Analysis Of Deer Hunting," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 1-9, October.
    12. Nicole J. Olynk & Christopher A. Wolf & Glynn T. Tonsor, 2012. "Production technology option value: the case of rbST in Michigan," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43, pages 1-9, November.
    13. Lang, Ghislaine & Farsi, Mehdi & Lanz, Bruno & Weber, Sylvain, 2021. "Energy efficiency and heating technology investments: Manipulating financial information in a discrete choice experiment," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555.
    15. Carson Reeling & Valentin Verdier & Frank Lupi, 2020. "Valuing Goods Allocated via Dynamic Lottery," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(4), pages 721-749.
    16. Boxall, Peter C. & Adamowicz, Wiktor L. & Swait, Joffre & Williams, Michael & Louviere, Jordan, 1996. "A comparison of stated preference methods for environmental valuation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 243-253, September.
    17. Byun, Hyunsuk & Shin, Jungwoo & Lee, Chul-Yong, 2018. "Using a discrete choice experiment to predict the penetration possibility of environmentally friendly vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 312-321.
    18. Peter Arcidiacono & Paul B. Ellickson, 2011. "Practical Methods for Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 363-394, September.
    19. Zvi Eckstein & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1989. "The Specification and Estimation of Dynamic Stochastic Discrete Choice Models: A Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 24(4), pages 562-598.
    20. Robert L. Hicks & Kurt E. Schnier, 2006. "Dynamic Random Utility Modeling: A Monte Carlo Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(4), pages 816-835.
    21. Tay T. R. Koo & Carlo Caponecchia & Ann Williamson, 2018. "How important is safety in making flight choices? Evidence from simple choice experiments," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 159-175, January.
    22. repec:oup:apecpp:v:40:y:2018:i:3:p:502-521. is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arcidiacono, Peter & Miller, Robert A., 2020. "Identifying dynamic discrete choice models off short panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(2), pages 473-485.
    2. Rambha, Tarun & Nozick, Linda K. & Davidson, Rachel, 2021. "Modeling hurricane evacuation behavior using a dynamic discrete choice framework," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 75-100.
    3. Sebastian Galiani & Juan Pantano, 2021. "Structural Models: Inception and Frontier," NBER Working Papers 28698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Andreas Lanz & Gregor Reich & Ole Wilms, 2022. "Adaptive grids for the estimation of dynamic models," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 179-238, June.
    5. Haoying Wang & Guohui Wu, 2022. "Modeling discrete choices with large fine-scale spatial data: opportunities and challenges," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 325-351, July.
    6. Ji, Yongjie & Rabotyagov, Sergey & Kling, Catherine L., 2014. "Crop Choice and Rotational Effects: A Dynamic Model of Land Use in Iowa in Recent Years," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170366, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Amoroso, S., 2013. "Heterogeneity of innovative, collaborative, and productive firm-level processes," Other publications TiSEM f5784a49-7053-401d-855d-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Reeling, Carson & Verdier, Valentin & Lupi, Frank, 2016. "Valuing Natural Resources Allocated by Dynamic Lottery," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235673, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Michael P. Keane, 2011. "Labor Supply and Taxes: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 961-1075, December.
    10. Holmes, Thomas J. & Sieg, Holger, 2015. "Structural Estimation in Urban Economics," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 69-114, Elsevier.
    11. Le-Yu Chen, 2009. "Identification of structural dynamic discrete choice models," CeMMAP working papers CWP08/09, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    12. Pamela Giustinelli & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2024. "SeaTE: Subjective Ex Ante Treatment Effect of Health on Retirement," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 278-317, April.
    13. Paul B. Ellickson & Sanjog Misra, 2011. "Structural Workshop Paper --Estimating Discrete Games," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(6), pages 997-1010, November.
    14. Christopher Ferrall, 2023. "Object Oriented (Dynamic) Programming: Closing the “Structural” Estimation Coding Gap," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(3), pages 761-816, October.
    15. An, Yonghong & Hu, Yingyao & Xiao, Ruli, 2021. "Dynamic decisions under subjective expectations: A structural analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 645-675.
    16. Hancevic, Pedro Ignacio, 2017. "A dynamic approach to environmental compliance decisions in U.S. Electricity Market: The Acid Rain Program revisited," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 129-137.
    17. Hema Yoganarasimhan, 2013. "The Value of Reputation in an Online Freelance Marketplace," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 860-891, November.
    18. De Pinto, Alessandro & Nelson, Gerald C., 2004. "A Dynamic Model Of Land Use Change With Spatially Explicit Data," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20314, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. Martínez-Jauregui, María & Herruzo, A. Casimiro & Campos, Pablo & Soliño, Mario, 2016. "Shedding light on the self-consumption value of recreational hunting in European Mediterranean forests," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 83-89.
    20. Maria Casanova-Rivas, 2008. "Dynamic Complementarities: A Computational and Empirical Analysis of Couples' Retirement Decisions," 2008 Meeting Papers 1073, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eejocm:v:47:y:2023:i:c:s1755534523000155. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-choice-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.