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Stability or restructuring? Macroeconomic dynamics under soft budget constraint problems

  • Toyofuku, Kenta
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    In this paper, we examine how a decrease in firms’ productivity or the degree of financial market imperfection affects macroeconomic dynamics when the bank has an incentive to misallocate its credit. We develop a model that incorporates a soft budget constraint into a simplified version of Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) environment and show that soft budget constraint problems may arise if the economy becomes less productive or the financial market is less developed. Because of this shift in firms’ productivity, not only do more bad projects survive, but profitable new entrants are crowded out, so that, as in transition economies and Japan in the 1990s, the recession is not only prolonged, but also becomes more severe in the long term.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Systems.

    Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 625-649

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:37:y:2013:i:4:p:625-649
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    1. Hart, Oliver & Moore, John, 1994. "A Theory of Debt Based on the Inalienability of Human Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(4), pages 841-79, November.
    2. Kyoji Fukao & Hyeog Ug Kwon, 2004. "Why Did Japan's TFP Growth Slow Down in the Lost Decade?: An Empirical Analysis Based on Firm-Level Data of Manufacturing Firms," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d04-50, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
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    7. Schmidt, Klaus M. & Schnitzer, Monika, 1993. "Privatization and Management Incentives in the Transition Period in Eastern Europe," Munich Reprints in Economics 3109, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    8. Maskin, Eric & Xu, Cheng-Gang, 2001. "Soft Budget Constraint Theories: From Centralization to the Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 2715, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    17. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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    21. Brandt, Loren & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2001. "Soft budget constraint and inflation cycles: a positive model of the macro-dynamics in China during transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 437-457, April.
    22. HyunSong Shin, 2009. "Securitisation and Financial Stability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(536), pages 309-332, 03.
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    24. Kornai, Janos, 2001. "Hardening the budget constraint: The experience of the post-socialist countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1573-1599, October.
    25. Toyofuku, Kenta, 2008. "Soft budget constraints, bank capital, and the monetary transmission mechanism," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 194-216, March.
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