IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecosys/v36y2012i3p372-390.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary policy and stock prices in small open economies: Empirical evidence for the new EU member states

Author

Listed:
  • Pirovano, Mara

Abstract

This study presents evidence on the effect of domestic and Euro Area monetary policy on stock prices in four new EU member states of Central Europe and the main determinants of stock price volatility, estimating structural vector autoregressive models identified with short-run restrictions. We find that stock prices in the considered new EU member states are more sensitive to changes in the Euro Area interest rate than to the domestic one. Moreover, the bulk of stock price volatility in these countries is due to shocks related to exchange rate and Euro Area monetary policy. Overall, we find that local stock markets are more sensitive to external shocks than to domestic ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Pirovano, Mara, 2012. "Monetary policy and stock prices in small open economies: Empirical evidence for the new EU member states," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 372-390.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:36:y:2012:i:3:p:372-390
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2012.06.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939362512000532
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecosys.2012.06.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balazs Vonnak, 2008. "The Hungarian monetary transmission mechanism: an assessment," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 235-257, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Rapach, David E., 2001. "Macro shocks and real stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 5-26.
    3. Marek Jarocinski, 2010. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 833-868.
    4. PIROVANO Mara & VANNESTE, Jacques & VAN POECK, André, 2009. "Portfolio and short-term capital inflows to the new and potential EU countries: Patterns, determinants and policy responses," Working Papers 2009018, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    5. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-654, June.
    6. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2010. "Capital inflows: Macroeconomic implications and policy responses," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 333-356, December.
    7. Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2004. "Monetary policy and the stock market in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-399, April.
    8. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    9. Balázs Vonnák, 2005. "Estimating the Effect of Hungarian Monetary Policy within a Structural VAR Framework," MNB Working Papers 2005/01, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    10. Alessio Anzuini & Aviram Levy, 2007. "Monetary policy shocks in the new EU members: a VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(9), pages 1147-1161.
    11. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "Capital flows to central and Eastern Europe," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 106-123, May.
    12. Stefano Neri, 2004. "Monetary policy and stock prices: theory and evidence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 513, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Sims, Christopher A & Uhlig, Harald, 1991. "Understanding Unit Rooters: A Helicopter Tour," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1591-1599, November.
    14. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1998. "Measuring monetary policy with VAR models: An evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1069-1112, June.
    15. Li, Yun Daisy & Iscan, Talan B. & Xu, Kuan, 2010. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on stock prices: Evidence from Canada and the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 876-896, September.
    16. Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg & Marcel Tirpák, 2008. "Determinants of Foreign Currency Borrowing in the New Member States of the EU," IMF Working Papers 2008/173, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia L., 2005. "Modeling equity market integration using smooth transition analysis: A study of Eastern European stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 818-831, September.
    18. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    19. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871.
    20. Büttner, David & Hayo, Bernd, 2011. "Determinants of European stock market integration," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 574-585.
    21. Christos Savva & Nektarios Aslanidis, 2010. "Stock market integration between new EU member states and the Euro-zone," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 337-351, October.
    22. Cappiello, Lorenzo & Gérard, Bruno & Kadareja, Arjan & Manganelli, Simone, 2006. "Financial integration of new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 683, European Central Bank.
    23. Ian Babetskii & Luboš Komárek & Zlatuše Komárková, 2007. "Financial Integration of Stock Markets among New EU Member States and the Euro Area," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(7-8), pages 341-362, September.
    24. Elbourne, Adam & de Haan, Jakob, 2006. "Financial structure and monetary policy transmission in transition countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-23, March.
    25. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    26. Laura Resmini, 2000. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the CEECs: New evidence from sectoral patterns," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(3), pages 665-689, November.
    27. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Unit Roots," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 998, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    28. Christiansen, Charlotte & Ranaldo, Angelo, 2009. "Extreme coexceedances in new EU member states' stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1048-1057, June.
    29. Tigran Poghosyan, 2009. "Are “new” and “old” EU members becoming more financially integrated? A threshold cointegration analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 259-281, October.
    30. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521839198.
    31. Mara Pirovano & Jacques Vanneste & André Van Poeck, 2011. "Portfolio and Short-term Capital Inflows to the New and Potential EU Countries: Patterns and Determinants," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    32. Ioannidis, Christos & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2008. "The impact of monetary policy on stock prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 33-53.
    33. Koivu, Tuuli, 2012. "Monetary policy, asset prices and consumption in China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 307-325.
    34. Lastrapes, W. D., 1998. "International evidence on equity prices, interest rates and money," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 377-406, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & Tran Ngoc Tho & Dinh Thi Thu Hong, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price on the Growth, Inflation, Unemployment and Budget Deficit of Vietnam," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 42-49.
    2. Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Has the South African Reserve Bank responded to equity returns since the sub-prime crisis? An asymmetric convergence approach," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(3), pages 205-225.
    3. Yang, Sheng-Ping, 2017. "Exchange rate dynamics and stock prices in small open economies: Evidence from Asia-Pacific countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB), pages 337-354.
    4. Rossanto Dwi HANDOYO & Mansor JUSOH & Mohd. Azlan SHAH ZAIDI, 2015. "Impact of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy on Indonesian Stock Market," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 3(2), pages 113-126.
    5. Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Has the South African Reserve Bank responded to equity prices since the sub-prime crisis? An asymmetric convergence approach," MPRA Paper 76542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Oguzhan Ozcelebi & Nurtac Yildirim, 2017. "Impacts of short-term interest rates on stock returns and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from EAGLE countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 228-255, February.
    7. Saliu Mojeed Olanrewaju & Ogunleye Edward Oladipo, 2021. "Asymmetric Macroeconomic Shocks and Asset Price Behaviors in Selected African Countries," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 11(2), pages 90-122, June.
    8. Ion POHOAŢĂ, & Delia Elena DIACONAÅžU, Author-Workplace-Name: Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of IaÅŸi, 700506, Romania & Oana Ramona SOCOLIUC, 2016. "Economic Dynamics €“ Stock Market Evolution: A Relation Committed To Dysfunctionality In Romania And Croatia," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 5(1), pages 1-40, January.
    9. Andrieș, Alin Marius & Ihnatov, Iulian & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2014. "Analyzing time–frequency relationship between interest rate, stock price and exchange rate through continuous wavelet," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 227-238.
    10. repec:agr:journl:v:2(602):y:2015:i:2(602):p:103-112 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Pasrun Adam & Ambo Wonua Nusantara & Abd AzisMuthalib, 2017. "Foreign Interest Ratesand the IslamicStock Market Integration between Indonesia and Malaysia," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 21(3), pages 639-659, Summer.
    12. Delia-Elena Diaconaşu, 2015. "CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN STOCK MARKETS IN TIMES OF CRISIS (International Conference "Recent Advances in Economic and Social Research", 13-14 mai 2015, București)," Institute for Economic Forecasting Conference Proceedings 151205, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    13. Mojeed Olanrewaju Saliu, 2021. "External macroeconomic shocks and stock price behavior in Nigeria," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 10(6), pages 174-180, September.
    14. Delia-Elena DIACONAŞU, 2015. "Stock market – economy growth nexus in an emerging country. The case of Romania," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(603), S), pages 103-112, Summer.
    15. Malika Akhatova & Mohd Pisal Zainal & Mansor H. Ibrahim, 2016. "Banking Models and Monetary Transmission Mechanisms in Malaysia: Are Islamic Banks Different?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(2), pages 169-183, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lucia Alessi & Mark Kerssenfischer, 2019. "The response of asset prices to monetary policy shocks: Stronger than thought," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 661-672, August.
    2. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2005_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    5. Lanne, Markku & Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2017. "Identification and estimation of non-Gaussian structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 288-304.
    6. Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Firm Size and Equity Returns in An Emerging Market: Panel Evidence of Malaysia," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 11(2), pages 29-55.
    7. Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressions with Smooth Transition in Variances: The Interaction between U.S. Monetary Policy and the Stock Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1388, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 39-76, December.
    9. Challe, Edouard & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2014. "Stock prices and monetary policy shocks: A general equilibrium approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 46-66.
    10. Amarasekara, Chandranath, 2008. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth and Inflation in Sri Lanka," MPRA Paper 64866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ecenur Ugurlu‐Yildirim & Baris Kocaarslan & Beyza M. Ordu‐Akkaya, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty, investor sentiment, and US stock market performance: New evidence from nonlinear cointegration analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1724-1738, April.
    12. PIROVANO, Mara, 2010. "Financial integration, monetary policy and stock prices: Empirical evidence for the new EU member states," Working Papers 2010024, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    13. Mr. Giovanni Ganelli & Nour Tawk, 2016. "Spillovers from Japan’s Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia: a Global VAR approach," IMF Working Papers 2016/099, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "The impact of ECBs conventional and unconventional monetary policies on European banking indexes returns," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def059, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    15. Mala Raghavan & Mardi Dungey, 2015. "Should ASEAN-5 monetary policy-makers act pre-emptively against stock market bubbles?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(11), pages 1086-1105, March.
    16. Rangan GUPTA & Roula INGLESI-LOTZ, 2012. "Macro Shocks and Real US Stock Prices with Special Focus on the “Great Recession”," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(2).
    17. Zlatina Balabanova & Ralf Brüggemann, 2012. "External Information and Monetary Policy Transmission in New EU Member States: Results from FAVAR Models," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2012-05, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    18. Dridi, Ichrak & Boughrara, Adel, 2021. "On the effect of full-fledged IT adoption on stock returns and their conditional volatility: Evidence from propensity score matching," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 179-194.
    19. Roman Horváth & Štefan Lyócsa & Eduard Baumöhl, 2018. "Stock market contagion in Central and Eastern Europe: unexpected volatility and extreme co-exceedance," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 391-412, March.
    20. Alfred A. Haug & Tomasz Jedrzejowicz & Anna Sznajderska, 2013. "Combining Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an SVAR for a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 1313, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2013.
    21. Haug, Alfred A. & Jędrzejowicz, Tomasz & Sznajderska, Anna, 2019. "Monetary and fiscal policy transmission in Poland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 15-27.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy shocks; Stock prices; European integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:36:y:2012:i:3:p:372-390. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/osteide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.