IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ant/wpaper/2009018.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Portfolio and short-term capital inflows to the new and potential EU countries: Patterns, determinants and policy responses

Author

Listed:
  • PIROVANO Mara
  • VANNESTE, Jacques
  • VAN POECK, André

Abstract

In this paper we estimate a dynamic panel model (Arellano-Bond GMM) explaining the volume of portfolio and short-term capital inflows (predominantly bank loans) in the new and potential EU member States as a function of a set of variables representing macroeconomic fundamentals (both domestic and foreign), macroeconomic policies and development of the financial sector. We find that while inflows of short-term bank loans are significantly explained by macroeconomic factors, exchange rate regime and liquidity of the banking sector, portfolio inflows seem to be meaningfully influenced only by the level of foreign GDP. We suggest two explanations for the latter result. First, the inability of aggregate data to capture the risk and expected profitability dimensions that typically underlie portfolio decisions. Second, portfolio capital in the form of bonds might react to interest rates other than the domestic and the European ones. During the last decade, the volume of short-term capital in the form of bank loans to the New and potential member States increased (with some heterogeneity across countries). In light of the econometric results, their vulnerability to reversals could be mitigated by adequate macroeconomic policies and further improvement of their financial sector.

Suggested Citation

  • PIROVANO Mara & VANNESTE, Jacques & VAN POECK, André, 2009. "Portfolio and short-term capital inflows to the new and potential EU countries: Patterns, determinants and policy responses," Working Papers 2009018, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ant:wpaper:2009018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docman/irua/58b8f4/a2920ec3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Montiel, Peter & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1999. "Do capital controls and macroeconomic policies influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 619-635, August.
    2. Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Josef C. Brada & Trajko Slaveski, 2012. "Transition in a Bubble Economy," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 48(S4), pages 7-13, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital inflows; EU enlargement; Policy responses; Portfolio investment; Dynamic panel estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • P34 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ant:wpaper:2009018. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joeri Nys). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ftufsbe.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.