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The monetary policy response to uncertain inflation persistence

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  • Tetlow, Robert

Abstract

We consider the implications of uncertainty regarding the persistence of inflation for the conduct of monetary policy in the context of a stylized New Keynesian model under the governance of a Taylor-type rule. Both Bayesian and robust (or ambiguity-averse) approaches are employed. The result one might have expected based on the seminal paper of Brainard (1967) which implies attenuation in policy responses, does not hold for the case of uncertain inflation persistence in either the Bayesian or robust cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Tetlow, Robert, 2019. "The monetary policy response to uncertain inflation persistence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 5-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:175:y:2019:i:c:p:5-8
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.10.034
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    1. Martin Ellison & Thomas J. Sargent, 2012. "A Defense Of The Fomc," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1047-1065, November.
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    3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2015. "Four types of ignorance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 97-113.
    4. Tetlow, Robert J. & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2001. "Simplicity versus optimality: The choice of monetary policy rules when agents must learn," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 245-279, January.
    5. Ulf Söderström, 2002. "Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(1), pages 125-145, March.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Navigating in Cloudy Skies
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-12-10 12:14:25

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    Cited by:

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    2. Yakov Ben‐Haim & Jan Willem Van den End, 2022. "Assessing uncertainty in the natural rate of interest: Info‐gap as guide for monetary policy in the euro area," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3228-3245, July.
    3. André Marine Charlotte & Medina Espidio Sebastián, 2022. "Optimal Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2022-17, Banco de México.
    4. Philip N. Jefferson, 2023. "Elevated Economic Uncertainty: Causes and Consequences: A speech at Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility,” a research conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Swiss National," Speech 97302, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Oloko, Tirimisiyu F. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Adedeji, Abdulfatai A. & Lakhani, Noman, 2021. "Fractional cointegration between gold price and inflation rate: Implication for inflation rate persistence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Tillmann Peter, 2021. "Robust Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty About the Lower Bound," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 309-321, January.
    7. Oloko, Tirimisiyu F. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Adedeji, Abdulfatai A. & Lakhani, Noman, 2021. "Oil price shocks and inflation rate persistence: A Fractional Cointegration VAR approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 259-275.
    8. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2018. "The limits to robust monetary policy in a small open economy with learning agents," Working Papers of BETA 2018-45, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    9. André, Marine Charlotte & Espidio, Sebastián Medina, 2024. "Optimal robust monetary policy in a small open emerging-market economy," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(4).
    10. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    11. Yakov Ben-Haim & Jan Willem van den End, 2019. "Fundamental uncertainty about the natural rate of interest: Info-gap as guide for monetary policy," DNB Working Papers 650, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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