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Something will turn up? Financial over-optimism and mortgage arrears

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  • Dawson, Chris
  • Henley, Andrew

Abstract

This paper investigates the association between unrealised financial expectations (over-optimism) and subsequent mortgage repayment difficulties, using British longitudinal data. Evidence is provided that an increased probability of mortgage payment difficulties post committal is associated with over-optimism prior to new mortgage advances.

Suggested Citation

  • Dawson, Chris & Henley, Andrew, 2012. "Something will turn up? Financial over-optimism and mortgage arrears," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 49-52.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:117:y:2012:i:1:p:49-52
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.063
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    2. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor, 2006. "Financial expectations, consumption and saving: a microeconomic analysis," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 313-338, August.
    3. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2010. "Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions," CEPR Discussion Papers 7986, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Richard Disney & Sarah Bridges & John Gathergood, 2010. "House Price Shocks and Household Indebtedness in the United Kingdom," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(307), pages 472-496, July.
    5. Sarah Bridges & Richard Disney, 2004. "Use of credit and arrears on debt among low-income families in the United Kingdom," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 25(1), pages 1-25, March.
    6. Madsen, Jakob Brochner, 1994. "Tests of rationality versus an "over optimist" bias," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 587-599, December.
    7. Sarah Brown & Gaia Garino & Karl Taylor & Stephen Wheatley Price, 2005. "Debt and Financial Expectations: An Individual- and Household-Level Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 100-120, January.
    8. Arabsheibani, Gholamreza & de Meza, David & Maloney, John & Pearson, Bernard, 2000. "And a vision appeared unto them of a great profit: evidence of self-deception among the self-employed," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 35-41, April.
    9. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:spr:soinre:v:133:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11205-016-1376-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Enrico Maria Cervellati & Pierpaolo Pattitoni & Marco Savioli, 2016. "Cognitive Biases and Entrepreneurial Under-Diversification," Working Paper series 16-24, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    3. Aneta Maria Kłopocka & Tomasz Kopczyński & Grażyna Lenicka-Bajer, 2014. "Financial Situation And Attitudes Towards Saving In Polish Society:Evidence From Micro Data," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0, pages 476-486, May.
    4. Balasuriya, Jiayi & Gough, Orla & Vasileva, Kristina, 2014. "Do optimists plan for retirement? A behavioural explanation for non-participation in pension schemes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 396-399.
    5. Weinstock, Eyal & Sonsino, Doron, 2014. "Are risk-seekers more optimistic? Non-parametric approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 236-251.
    6. Moral-Arce, Ignacio & Martín-Román, Javier & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2018. "Cessation of activity benefit of Spanish self-employed workers: a heterogeneous impact evaluation," MPRA Paper 85111, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial optimism; Expectations; Mortgage arrears;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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