The dynamic complexity of critical mineral supply chains reveals the paradox of energy transition

As the global energy transition accelerates to combat climate change, demand for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earths has surged. Yet, their complex supply chains are poorly understood, causing inefficiencies and delays in clean energy adoption. In this paper, we developed the energy transition mineral supply chain complexity index, revealing that advanced processing of final products, such as batteries, drives successful energy transitions, while raw material complexity varies widely. Our product adjacent possibility framework and supply chain complexity potential model guide nations in upgrading supply chains and forecasting future capabilities, addressing disparities between technology leaders and resource-rich countries. Our findings uncover a ‘transition paradox’, where entrenched strengths in specific supply chain tiers can impede progress, exacerbating global energy injustices by perpetuating unequal access to clean energy technologies and benefits. This framework equips policymakers to bolster supply chain resilience and promote energy justice, thereby accelerating the shift to a sustainable energy future within an ecological economic paradigm.