Predicting uptake of a malignant catarrhal fever vaccine by pastoralists in northern Tanzania: Opportunities for improving livelihoods and ecosystem health

Malignant Catarhal Fever (MCF), caused by a virus transmitted from asymptomatic wildebeest, is a lethal disease in cattle that threatens livestock-based livelihoods and food security in many areas of Africa. Many herd owners reduce transmission risks by moving cattle away from infection hot-spots, but this imposes considerable economic burdens on their households. The advent of a partially-protective vaccine for cattle opens up new options for disease prevention. In a study of pastoral households in northern Tanzania, we use stated preference choice modelling to investigate how pastoralists would likely respond to the availability of such a vaccine. We show a high probability of likely vaccine uptake by herd owners, declining at higher vaccine costs. Acceptance increases with more efficaceous vaccines, in situations where vaccinated cattle are ear-tagged, and where vaccine is delivered through private vets. Through analysis of Normalized Density Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, we show that the reported MCF incidence over 5 years is highest in areas where the mean and interannual varibility in vegetative greeness is relatively low and where herds sizes are smaller. Trends towards lower rainfall and greater landscape-level constraints on cattle movement suggest that MCF avoidance through traditional movement away from wildebeest will become more challenging and that demand for an MCF vaccine will likely increase.