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Predicting uptake of a malignant catarrhal fever vaccine by pastoralists in northern Tanzania: opportunities for improving livelihoods and ecosystem health


  • Catherine Decker

    (Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow; Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology)

  • Nick Hanley

    (Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow)

  • Mikołaj Czajkowski

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)

  • Thomas A. Morrison

    (Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow)

  • Julius Keyyu

    (Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute)

  • Linus Munishi

    (Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology)

  • Felix Lankester

    (Paul G. Allen School for Global Animal Health, Global Animal Health Tanzania)

  • Sarah Cleaveland

    (Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow)


Malignant Catarhal Fever (MCF), transmitted from wildebeest to cattle, threatens livestock-based livelihoods and food security in many areas of Africa. Many herd owners reduce transmission risks by moving cattle away from infection hot-spots, but this imposes considerable economic burdens on their households. The advent of a partially-protective vaccine for cattle opens up new options for disease prevention. In a study of pastoral households in northern Tanzania, we use stated preference choice modelling to investigate how pastoralists would likely respond to the availability of such a vaccine. We show a high probability of likely vaccine uptake by herd owners, declining at higher vaccine costs. Acceptance increases with more efficaceous vaccines, in situations where vaccinated cattle are ear-tagged, and where vaccine is delivered through private vets. Through analysis Normalized Density Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, we show that the reported MCF incidence over 5 years is highest in areas with greatest NDVI variability and in smaller herds. Trends towards greater rainfall variability suggest that MCF avoidance through traditional movement of cattle away from wildebeest will become more challenging and that demand for an MCF vaccine will likely increase.

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  • Catherine Decker & Nick Hanley & Mikołaj Czajkowski & Thomas A. Morrison & Julius Keyyu & Linus Munishi & Felix Lankester & Sarah Cleaveland, 2020. "Predicting uptake of a malignant catarrhal fever vaccine by pastoralists in northern Tanzania: opportunities for improving livelihoods and ecosystem health," Working Papers 2020-26, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2020-26

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item


    vaccine; cattle; Malignant Catarhal Fever; Tanzania; stated preference; choice modelling; wilingness to pay;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • H57 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Procurement
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other

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