Predicting uptake of a malignant catarrhal fever vaccine by pastoralists in northern Tanzania: opportunities for improving livelihoods and ecosystem health

Malignant Catarhal Fever (MCF), transmitted from wildebeest to cattle, threatens livestock-based livelihoods and food security in many areas of Africa. Many herd owners reduce transmission risks by moving cattle away from infection hot-spots, but this imposes considerable economic burdens on their households. The advent of a partially-protective vaccine for cattle opens up new options for disease prevention. In a study of pastoral households in northern Tanzania, we use stated preference choice modelling to investigate how pastoralists would likely respond to the availability of such a vaccine. We show a high probability of likely vaccine uptake by herd owners, declining at higher vaccine costs. Acceptance increases with more efficaceous vaccines, in situations where vaccinated cattle are ear-tagged, and where vaccine is delivered through private vets. Through analysis Normalized Density Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, we show that the reported MCF incidence over 5 years is highest in areas with greatest NDVI variability and in smaller herds. Trends towards greater rainfall variability suggest that MCF avoidance through traditional movement of cattle away from wildebeest will become more challenging and that demand for an MCF vaccine will likely increase.