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External shocks and persistence of external debt in open vulnerable economies: The case of Africa

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  • Muhanji, Stella
  • Ojah, Kalu

Abstract

We examine the extent to which two external shocks, the world interest rate shock and the commodity price shock, lead to external debt accumulation in Africa. We begin by estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of external debt burden, and solve the linear equations using the quadratic method of undetermined coefficients. Consequently, we run simulations of 50 time periods. Our results show that both world commodity price and world interest rate shocks impact external debt accumulation in the majority of our sample African countries. Interestingly, world commodity price shocks lead to an increase in external debt while world interest rate shocks appear to discourage accumulation of external debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhanji, Stella & Ojah, Kalu, 2011. "External shocks and persistence of external debt in open vulnerable economies: The case of Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1615-1628, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:4:p:1615-1628
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rasaki, Mutiu Gbade & Malikane, Christopher, 2015. "Macroeconomic shocks and fluctuations in African economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 675-696.
    2. Muhanji, Stella & Malikane, Christopher & Ojah, Kalu, 2013. "Price and liquidity puzzles of a monetary shock: Evidence from indebted African economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 620-630.
    3. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Soon, 2013. "The behavior of external debt in Asian countries: evidence based on panel unit root tests," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(sup1), pages 377-394, June.
    4. Muhanji, Stella & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "External debt and military spending: the case of Africa's conflict countries," MPRA Paper 56077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. repec:dug:journl:y:2017:i:2:p:145-158 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gwatidzo, Tendai & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "Firms’ debt choice in Africa: Are institutional infrastructure and non-traditional determinants important?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 152-166.

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