IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v89y2026icp214-227.html

Does local government debt management promote corporate total factor productivity? Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Dan
  • Si, Deng-Kui
  • Shen, Chunming

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of China's local government debt management (LGDM) reform on corporate total factor productivity (TFP). Exploiting the reform as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that local government debt management significantly enhances corporate TFP. We explore the underlying mechanisms and provide evidence that the reform operated primarily by alleviating firms' financing constraints, increasing firms’ risk-taking, and improving capital allocation efficiency. Furthermore, the above effect is more pronounced among firms in regions with low fiscal pressure and low banking competition, and in more competitive industries. Our findings have important policy implications for mitigating financial risks and stimulating market vitality, thereby facilitating high-quality development of the real economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Dan & Si, Deng-Kui & Shen, Chunming, 2026. "Does local government debt management promote corporate total factor productivity? Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 214-227.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:89:y:2026:i:c:p:214-227
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S031359262500493X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eap.2025.12.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Monteiro, Sofia, 2024. "Banks’ portfolio of government debt and sovereign risk: From safe havens to stormy seas," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Liu, Xinran & Si, Deng-Kui, 2025. "Does digital inclusive finance promote innovation? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2020. "The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 42-71.
    4. Chin, Tachia & Li, Zhisheng & Huang, Leping & Li, Xinyu, 2025. "How artificial intelligence promotes new quality productive forces of firms: A dynamic capability view," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    5. Si, Deng-Kui & Liu, Guanchun, 2025. "How does capital market liberalization shape corporate shadow banking? Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. Hasan, Iftekhar & Kim, Suk-Joong & Politsidis, Panagiotis N. & Wu, Eliza, 2023. "Regulation and information costs of sovereign distress: Evidence from corporate lending markets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Kong, Dongmin & Zhao, Ying & Liu, Shasha, 2021. "Trust and innovation: Evidence from CEOs' early-life experience," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Si, Deng-Kui & Wang, Meng & Ding, Hui, 2023. "Capital account liberalization and corporate maturity mismatch: The role of bank competition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2000. "Financial markets and the allocation of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 187-214.
    10. Croce, M.M. & Nguyen, Thien T. & Raymond, S. & Schmid, L., 2019. "Government debt and the returns to innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 205-225.
    11. Liu, Lu & Zhao, Shumeng, 2025. "Local government debt, financing constraints and firms' green total factor productivity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    12. Yumeng Wu & Haiying Pan, 2024. "Zombie firms and corporate financialization: evidence from China," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 1077-1099, April.
    13. Xue, Yixin & Wang, Zhenni, 2025. "Does local fiscal pressure inhibit the labor income share of enterprises?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    14. Guariglia, Alessandra & Liu, Pei, 2014. "To what extent do financing constraints affect Chinese firms' innovation activities?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 223-240.
    15. Li, Xiao-Lin & Si, Deng-Kui, 2024. "Does financial market liberalization promote corporate radical innovation? Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    16. Lin William Cong & Haoyu Gao & Jacopo Ponticelli & Xiaoguang Yang, 2019. "Credit Allocation Under Economic Stimulus: Evidence from China," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(9), pages 3412-3460.
    17. Josh Lerner & Ramana Nanda, 2020. "Venture Capital's Role in Financing Innovation: What We Know and How Much We Still Need to Learn," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 237-261, Summer.
    18. Anabela Santos & Michele Cincera, 2022. "Determinants of financing constraints," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1427-1439, March.
    19. Kong, Dongmin & Piao, Yin & Zhang, Wenzhe & Liu, Chenhao & Zhao, Ying, 2023. "Trust and corporate social responsibility: Evidence from CEO’s early experience," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 585-596.
    20. Wang, Haijun & Zhou, Lili & Liu, Xin & Li, Huiyang & Liu, Ying, 2025. "Digital finance and new quality productive force of enterprise: Based on the analysis of enterprise industrial and commercial big data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 104(PA).
    21. Wen, Xi & Li, Wanli & Shen, Zhixuan, 2024. "Local government debt and corporate asset-debt maturity mismatches: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    22. Si, Deng-Kui & Wang, Meng & Yu, Yong, 2025. "Does the housing purchase restriction policy promote entrepreneurship? Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    23. Kong, Dongmin & Ji, Mianmian, 2024. "Individual investors’ dividend tax reform and investment efficiency," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1102-1119.
    24. David Hirshleifer & Angie Low & Siew Hong Teoh, 2012. "Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1457-1498, August.
    25. Zhang, Ping & Sha, Yezhou & Wang, Yu & Wang, Tewei, 2022. "Capital market opening and stock price crash risk – Evidence from the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock connect," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    26. Li, Xiao-Lin & Qu, Wentian & Qiu, Guojing, 2025. "How does non-financial firms' systemic risk affect their credit constraints? Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(PB).
    27. Hamdi Ben-Nasr & Sabri Boubaker, 2024. "Government debt and stock price crash risk: International Evidence," Post-Print hal-04648524, HAL.
    28. Qu, Xi & Xu, Zhiwei & Yu, Jinxiang, 2025. "The pricing of local government bonds in China: A bank-government relationship perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    29. Li, Xiao-Lin & Zhang, Rong-Jing, 2025. "Effects of credit misallocation on systemic risk of non-financial corporations: The role of monetary policy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    30. Akkoyun, Cagri & Ersahin, Nuri & James, Christopher M., 2023. "Crowded out from the beginning: Impact of government debt on corporate financing," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    31. Ben-Nasr, Hamdi & Boubaker, Sabri, 2024. "Government debt and stock price crash risk: International Evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    32. Si, Deng-Kui & Zhou, Fu-You & Li, Xiao-Lin & Kong, Dongmin, 2025. "The effect of financial marketization on the nexus between ESG rating uncertainty and corporate innovation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    33. Cao, Mingyao & Duan, Keyi & Ibrahim, Haslindar, 2025. "Constraining effects of local government debt on bank loan growth," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 371-382.
    34. Kong, Dongmin & Xiong, Mengxu & Qin, Ni, 2022. "Business Tax reform and CSR engagement: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    35. Pan, Lin & Huang, Kun & Wang, Zhili, 2025. "Local government debt and corporate stock liquidity: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 104(PA).
    36. Nie, Song & Wang, Shihao, 2025. "Local government debt pressure and low-carbon economy: The mechanism based on the perspective of government behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    37. Feng, Gen-Fu & Niu, Peng & Wang, Jun-Zhuo & Liu, Jian, 2022. "Capital market liberalization and green innovation for sustainability: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 610-623.
    38. Cornaggia, Jess & Li, Jay Yin, 2019. "The value of access to finance: Evidence from M&As," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 232-250.
    39. Toni M. Whited & Guojun Wu, 2006. "Financial Constraints Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 531-559.
    40. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448.
    41. Boubaker, Sabri & Karim, Sitara & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Sharma, Gagan Deep, 2023. "Financial markets, energy shocks, and extreme volatility spillovers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    42. Fan, Jianyong & Liu, Yu & Zhang, Qi & Zhao, Peng, 2022. "Does government debt impede firm innovation? Evidence from the rise of LGFVs in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    43. Yoshihiro Eshima & Brian S. Anderson, 2017. "Firm growth, adaptive capability, and entrepreneurial orientation," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 770-779, March.
    44. Cull, Robert & Li, Wei & Sun, Bo & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2015. "Government connections and financial constraints: Evidence from a large representative sample of Chinese firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 271-294.
    45. Woo, Wing Thye, 2019. "China's soft budget constraint on the demand-side undermines its supply-side structural reforms," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    46. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
    47. Xiong, Jiacai & Huang, Ling & Yang, Zelin & Wang, Xin, 2024. "The impact of local government debt on entrepreneurship: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment of local debt governance reform," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 501-519.
    48. Fu, Qian & Zhao, Shengliang, 2025. "Influence of green finance on new-quality productivity of enterprises: Evidence from Chinese A-share listed companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    49. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2020. "Local Crowding‐Out in China," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 2855-2898, December.
    50. Kaplinsky, Raphael & Kraemer-Mbula, Erika, 2022. "Innovation and uneven development: The challenge for low- and middle-income economies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(2).
    51. Li, Tian & Qi, Feng, 2025. "Fiscal reform and green innovation: Evidence from China's local debt management reform," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    52. Chen, Tao & Xie, Lingmin & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2017. "How does analysts' forecast quality relate to corporate investment efficiency?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 217-240.
    53. Switzer, Lorne N. & Wang, Jun & Jiang, Yuehao, 2024. "The impact of corporate governance and state ownership on the default probabilities of Chinese firms," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    54. Zhu, Jun & Zhu, Man & Yang, Zhiwei, 2024. "The financialization of local government debt in China and its risk transmission to commercial banks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    55. Ren, Yuanming & Gao, Jingyi & Zhan, Xinyu & Xu, Qizhou, 2025. "Banking competition and the enhancement of new quality productive forces: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    56. V. V. Chari & Alessandro Dovis & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2020. "On the Optimality of Financial Repression," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(2), pages 710-739.
    57. Kong, Dongmin & Liang, Weiming & Ji, Fei, 2024. "Affiliated guarantee risk control and firm cash holdings: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    58. Kose John & Lubomir Litov & Bernard Yeung, 2008. "Corporate Governance and Risk‐Taking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1679-1728, August.
    59. Jiang, Xiaochen & Shen, Jim Huangnan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Chong, 2021. "Supply-side structural reform and dynamic capital structure adjustment: Evidence from Chinese-listed firms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    60. Si, Deng-Kui & Li, Hong-Xue & Wu, Shilei & Zhou, Fuyou, 2024. "Does local government debt management affect cross-border M&As? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    61. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    62. Zhao, Cui-Xia & Li, Yan & Wang, Hao-Kui, 2025. "Investor sentiment, financing constraints, and corporate risk-taking: Mechanisms and heterogeneity analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    63. Aggarwal, Reena & Erel, Isil & Ferreira, Miguel & Matos, Pedro, 2011. "Does governance travel around the world? Evidence from institutional investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 154-181, April.
    64. Knudsen, Arielle & Lopatin, Nikita, 2023. "Credit constraints and spillover effects of financial market liberalization: Case of Colombia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 132-141.
    65. Yuyaun Tan & Yiping Huang & Wing Thye Woo, 2016. "Zombie Firms and the Crowding-Out of Private Investment in China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 15(3), pages 32-55, Fall.
    66. Hongying Sun & Yipei Luo & Jia Liu & Zheng Lin & Miraj Ahmed Bhuiyan, 2025. "Does the Digital Finance Promote Technological Innovation? Evidence From Chinese Cities," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(2), pages 8037-8059, June.
    67. James R. Brown & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 2009. "Financing Innovation and Growth: Cash Flow, External Equity, and the 1990s R&D Boom," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(1), pages 151-185, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Si, Deng-Kui & Li, Hong-Xue & Wu, Shilei & Zhou, Fuyou, 2024. "Does local government debt management affect cross-border M&As? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Liu, Xinran & Si, Deng-Kui, 2025. "Does digital inclusive finance promote innovation? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Si, Deng-Kui & Li, Hong-Xue & Pei, Tianyue, 2026. "Does bond market liberalization mitigate corporate risk-taking? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    4. Pan, Lin & Huang, Kun & Wang, Zhili, 2025. "Local government debt and corporate stock liquidity: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 104(PA).
    5. Yuan, Li & Rao, Siqi & Yang, Shenggang & Dai, Pengyi, 2023. "Does equity market openness increase productivity? the dual effects of Shanghai-Hong Kong stock Connect program in China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Zhu, Jun & Xu, Haokun & Zhang, Yue, 2022. "Local government debt and firm productivity: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Si, Deng-Kui & Liu, Guanchun, 2025. "How does capital market liberalization shape corporate shadow banking? Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    8. Qiao, Lu & Fei, Junjun, 2022. "Government subsidies, enterprise operating efficiency, and “stiff but deathless” zombie firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    9. Cui, Ling & Si, Deng-Kui, 2024. "Does RMB exchange rate regime reform decrease corporate risk-taking? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    10. Jiang, Chun & Qiu, Yihan & Li, Xiao-Lin & Si, Deng-Kui, 2024. "Does stock market liberalization promote entrepreneurship?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 480-495.
    11. Zhang, Guanglong & Wang, Chuyu, 2025. "Local government debt and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    12. Si, Deng-Kui & Zhou, Fu-You & Li, Xiao-Lin & Kong, Dongmin, 2025. "The effect of financial marketization on the nexus between ESG rating uncertainty and corporate innovation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    13. Shi, Yukun & Zhu, Kairan, 2024. "Unraveling the impact of bank loan spread on corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    14. Deng, Jiapin & Liu, Qiao, 2024. "Good finance, bad finance, and resource misallocation: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    15. Xuan Tian & Guoqian Tu & Yichu Wang, 2024. "The Real Effects of Shadow Banking: Evidence from China," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(12), pages 8556-8582, December.
    16. Simone Lenzu & Francesco Manaresi, 2019. "Sources and implications of resource misallocation: new evidence from firm-level marginal products and user costs," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 485, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Song, Zheng (Michael) & Xiong, Wei, 2018. "Risks in China's financial system," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    18. Jiani Li & Jie Li & Tianhang Zhou, 2023. "State ownership and zombie firms: Evidence from China's 2008 stimulus plan," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 853-876, October.
    19. Liu, Qiang & Mao, Yidan & Zhang, Yefeng & Xiong, Zhengling, 2025. "Targeted fiscal policy and corporate investment: Evidence from the special bonds in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    20. Guan, Xinghua & Han, Ruixue & Mao, Jie, 2026. "Guarantee networks and financial resource allocation: Firm-level evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:89:y:2026:i:c:p:214-227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.