IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v183y2026ics0165188925002064.html

Ambiguity overprecision and optimal capital requirements in continuous time

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Jingyuan
  • Lin, Qian
  • Tian, Weidong

Abstract

We develop a dynamic utility model within a continuous-time framework to incorporate ambiguity overprecision regarding both the correlation and drift of price dynamics. We extend key results from optimal capital requirements theory in this framework. By employing an explicit approach, we determine the optimal liability-to-surplus ratio for a major insurer, shedding light on the profound impact of ambiguity overprecision. Our analysis reveals that accounting for ambiguity overprecision leads to an optimal liability-to-surplus ratio exceeding the benchmark established in the absence of such overprecision.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Jingyuan & Lin, Qian & Tian, Weidong, 2026. "Ambiguity overprecision and optimal capital requirements in continuous time," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:183:y:2026:i:c:s0165188925002064
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105240
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188925002064
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105240?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Larry G. Epstein & Shaolin Ji, 2013. "Ambiguous Volatility and Asset Pricing in Continuous Time," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(7), pages 1740-1786.
    2. Aebi, Vincent & Sabato, Gabriele & Schmid, Markus, 2012. "Risk management, corporate governance, and bank performance in the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3213-3226.
    3. Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2006. "Ambiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1447-1498, November.
    4. Klayman, Joshua & Soll, Jack B. & Gonzalez-Vallejo, Claudia & Barlas, Sema, 1999. "Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask, , , , , , , , ," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 216-247, September.
    5. Thomas Astebro & Holger Herz & Ramana Nanda & Roberto A. Weber, 2014. "Seeking the Roots of Entrepreneurship: Insights from Behavioral Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 49-70, Summer.
    6. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2016. "Learning from Inflation Experiences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 53-87.
    7. Zengjing Chen & Larry Epstein, 2002. "Ambiguity, Risk, and Asset Returns in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1403-1443, July.
    8. David Easley & Maureen O'Hara & Liyan Yang, 2014. "Opaque Trading, Disclosure, and Asset Prices: Implications for Hedge Fund Regulation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(4), pages 1190-1237.
    9. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. John R. Graham, 2022. "Presidential Address: Corporate Finance and Reality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 1975-2049, August.
    11. Gilat Levy & Ronny Razin, 2015. "Correlation Neglect, Voting Behavior, and Information Aggregation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1634-1645, April.
    12. ,, 2011. "Dynamic choice under ambiguity," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 6(3), September.
    13. Milo Bianchi & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2019. "Ambiguity Preferences and Portfolio Choices: Evidence from the Field," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-01886572, HAL.
    14. Milo Bianchi & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2019. "Ambiguity Preferences and Portfolio Choices: Evidence from the Field," Post-Print halshs-01886572, HAL.
    15. Attaoui, Sami & Cao, Wenbin & Duan, Xiaoman & Liu, Hening, 2021. "Optimal capital structure, ambiguity aversion, and leverage puzzles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    16. Peter Klibanoff & Massimo Marinacci & Sujoy Mukerji, 2005. "A Smooth Model of Decision Making under Ambiguity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1849-1892, November.
    17. Grossman, Sanford J. & Vila, Jean-Luc, 1992. "Optimal Dynamic Trading with Leverage Constraints," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 151-168, June.
    18. Jiang, Julia & Liu, Jun & Tian, Weidong & Zeng, Xudong, 2022. "Portfolio concentration, portfolio inertia, and ambiguous correlation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    19. Sudipto Bhattacharya & Charles A.E. Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2019. "A Reconsideration of Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis," Chapters, in: Financial Regulation and Stability, chapter 6, pages 158-200, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Ulrike Malmendier & Timothy Taylor, 2015. "On the Verges of Overconfidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 3-8, Fall.
    21. Peter Bossaerts & Paolo Ghirardato & Serena Guarnaschelli & William R. Zame, 2010. "Ambiguity in Asset Markets: Theory and Experiment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1325-1359, April.
    22. Milo Bianchi & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2019. "Ambiguity Preferences and Portfolio Choices: Evidence from the Field," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(4), pages 1486-1501, April.
    23. Ulrike Malmendier, 2018. "Behavioral Corporate Finance," NBER Working Papers 25162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Martin Hellwig, 2009. "Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector: An Analysis of the Subprime-Mortgage Financial Crisis," De Economist, Springer, vol. 157(2), pages 129-207, June.
    25. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2015. "Four types of ignorance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 97-113.
    26. John Graham, 2022. "Presidential Address: Corporate Finance and Reality," NBER Working Papers 29841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    29. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "A Quartet of Semigroups for Model Specification, Robustness, Prices of Risk, and Model Detection," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 4, pages 83-143, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    30. Itzhak Ben-David & John R. Graham, 2013. "Managerial Miscalibration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1547-1584.
    31. Holger Kraft & Thomas Seiferling & Frank Thomas Seifried, 2017. "Optimal consumption and investment with Epstein–Zin recursive utility," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 187-226, January.
    32. Hao Xing, 2017. "Consumption–investment optimization with Epstein–Zin utility in incomplete markets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 227-262, January.
    33. Larry G Epstein & Yoram Halevy, 2019. "Ambiguous Correlation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(2), pages 668-693.
    34. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    35. Hu, Mingshang & Ji, Shaolin, 2017. "Dynamic programming principle for stochastic recursive optimal control problem driven by a G-Brownian motion," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 107-134.
    36. Lin, Qian & Luo, Yulei & Sun, Xianming, 2022. "Robust investment strategies with two risky assets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    37. Joshua Coval & Jakub Jurek & Erik Stafford, 2009. "The Economics of Structured Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 3-25, Winter.
    38. Jerome L. Stein, 2012. "Stochastic Optimal Control and the U.S. Financial Debt Crisis," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-1-4614-3079-7, October.
    39. Stefan Nagel & Zhengyang Xu, 2022. "Asset Pricing with Fading Memory," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(5), pages 2190-2245.
    40. Benjamin Enke & Florian Zimmermann, 2019. "Correlation Neglect in Belief Formation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(1), pages 313-332.
    41. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate & Jon Yan, 2011. "Overconfidence and Early‐Life Experiences: The Effect of Managerial Traits on Corporate Financial Policies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1687-1733, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jiang, Julia & Liu, Jun & Tian, Weidong & Zeng, Xudong, 2022. "Portfolio concentration, portfolio inertia, and ambiguous correlation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    3. Li, Wenhui & Ockenfels, Peter & Wilde, Christian, 2021. "The effect of ambiguity on price formation and trading behavior in financial markets," SAFE Working Paper Series 326, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    4. Levy, Gilat & Razin, Ronny, 2022. "Combining forecasts in the presence of ambiguity over correlation structures," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    5. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Matthys, Felix, 2019. "Robust consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices can jump," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1-56.
    6. Razin, Ronny & Levy, Gilat, 2020. "Combining forecasts in the presence of ambiguity over correlation structures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 104641, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Yu Liu & Hao Wang & Tan Wang & Lihong Zhang, 2025. "Volatility Ambiguity, Portfolio Decisions, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(6), pages 5185-5203, June.
    8. Garces, Len Patrick Dominic M. & Shen, Yang, 2025. "Robust optimal investment and consumption strategies with portfolio constraints and stochastic environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 322(2), pages 693-712.
    9. Meyer, Steffen & Uhr, Charline, 2024. "Ambiguity and private investors’ behavior after forced fund liquidations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    10. Maenhout, Pascal J. & Vedolin, Andrea & Xing, Hao, 2025. "Robustness and dynamic sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    11. Nengjiu Ju & Jianjun Miao, 2012. "Ambiguity, Learning, and Asset Returns," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(2), pages 559-591, March.
    12. Agarwal, Vikas & Arisoy, Y. Eser & Naik, Narayan Y., 2017. "Volatility of aggregate volatility and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 491-510.
    13. Daniele Pennesi, 2013. "Asset Prices in an Ambiguous Economy," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 315, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    14. Hansen, Peter G., 2022. "New formulations of ambiguous volatility with an application to optimal dynamic contracting," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    15. Hansen, Lars Peter, 2013. "Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-7, Nobel Prize Committee.
    16. Archankul, Arnon & Ferrari, Giorgio & Hellmann, Tobias & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2025. "Singular control in a cash management model with ambiguity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 327(2), pages 500-514.
    17. Te Bao & John Duffy & Jiahua Zhu, 2025. "Information Ambiguity, Market Institutions, and Asset Prices: Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(4), pages 3232-3252, April.
    18. Loïc Berger & Louis Eeckhoudt, 2021. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Value of Diversification," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 1639-1647, March.
    19. Hui Chen & Nengjiu Ju & Jianjun Miao, 2014. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Ambiguous Return Predictability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(4), pages 799-823, October.
    20. Izhakian, Yehuda, 2020. "A theoretical foundation of ambiguity measurement," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:183:y:2026:i:c:s0165188925002064. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.