IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v148y2021ics0304387820301371.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Conflict and risky health behavior: Evidence from Mexico's drug war

Author

Listed:
  • Manian, Shanthi

Abstract

Risky health behaviors contribute to a large share of disease in developing countries, yet few papers have studied the effect of conflict on these behaviors. The canonical health capital model predicts that conflict should increase risky health behaviors: as the likelihood of survival falls, incentives to invest in preventive measures also fall, increasing risk-taking. However, recent findings from various violent contexts, including the drug war in Mexico, suggest the behavioral response to conflict may reduce risk-taking. In this paper, I identify the effect of insecurity on sexual risk-taking using unique panel data on female sex workers in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. I show that more intense conflict generates a large reduction in risky sex transactions. I rule out several alternate explanations, including compositional changes in sex markets and changes in drug use. The results suggest that the behavioral response to insecurity can mitigate the negative effects of conflict on health.

Suggested Citation

  • Manian, Shanthi, 2021. "Conflict and risky health behavior: Evidence from Mexico's drug war," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:148:y:2021:i:c:s0304387820301371
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102562
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387820301371
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102562?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anderson, Michael L, 2008. "Multiple Inference and Gender Differences in the Effects of Early Intervention: A Reevaluation of the Abecedarian, Perry Preschool, and Early Training Projects," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt15n8j26f, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    2. Saurabh Singhal, 2018. "Early life shocks and mental health: The long-term effect of war in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 65, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. van den Berg, Marrit & Fort, Ricardo & Burger, Kees, 2009. "Natural Hazards And Risk Aversion: Experimental Evidence From Latin America," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51394, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Raj Arunachalam & Manisha Shah, 2013. "Compensated for Life: Sex Work and Disease Risk," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 48(2), pages 345-369.
    5. Akresh, Richard & Lucchetti, Leonardo & Thirumurthy, Harsha, 2012. "Wars and child health: Evidence from the Eritrean–Ethiopian conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 330-340.
    6. Singhal, Saurabh, 2019. "Early life shocks and mental health: The long-term effect of war in Vietnam," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    7. Pamela Jakiela & Owen Ozier, 2019. "The Impact of Violence on Individual Risk Preferences: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 547-559, July.
    8. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    9. Moya, Andrés, 2018. "Violence, psychological trauma, and risk attitudes: Evidence from victims of violence in Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 15-27.
    10. Christopher Blattman & Jeannie Annan, 2010. "The Consequences of Child Soldiering," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 882-898, November.
    11. Anderson, Michael L., 2008. "Multiple Inference and Gender Differences in the Effects of Early Intervention: A Reevaluation of the Abecedarian, Perry Preschool, and Early Training Projects," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1481-1495.
    12. Seema Jayachandran, 2006. "Selling Labor Low: Wage Responses to Productivity Shocks in Developing Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 538-575, June.
    13. Astorga, Luis & Shirk, David A., 2010. "Drug Trafficking Organizations and Counter-Drug Strategies in the U.S.-Mexican Context," University of California at San Diego, Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies qt8j647429, Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, UC San Diego.
    14. Cassar, Alessandra & Healy, Andrew & von Kessler, Carl, 2017. "Trust, Risk, and Time Preferences After a Natural Disaster: Experimental Evidence from Thailand," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 90-105.
    15. Oeindrila Dube & Omar García-Ponce & Kevin Thom, 2016. "From Maize to Haze: Agricultural Shocks and the Growth of the Mexican Drug Sector," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(5), pages 1181-1224.
    16. Jonathan Robinson & Ethan Yeh, 2011. "Transactional Sex as a Response to Risk in Western Kenya," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 35-64, January.
    17. Philip Verwimp & Patricia Justino & Tilman Brück, 2018. "The Microeconomics of Violent Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 280, Households in Conflict Network.
    18. Richard Akresh & Sonia Bhalotra & Marinella Leone & Una Okonkwo Osili, 2012. "War and Stature: Growing Up during the Nigerian Civil War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 273-277, May.
    19. Tilman Brück & Wim Naudé & Philip Verwimp, 2013. "Entrepreneurship and Violent Conflict in Developing Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-028, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. Adriana Camacho, 2008. "Stress and Birth Weight: Evidence from Terrorist Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 511-515, May.
    21. Maarten J. Voors & Eleonora E. M. Nillesen & Philip Verwimp & Erwin H. Bulte & Robert Lensink & Daan P. Van Soest, 2012. "Violent Conflict and Behavior: A Field Experiment in Burundi," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 941-964, April.
    22. Minoiu, Camelia & Shemyakina, Olga N., 2014. "Armed conflict, household victimization, and child health in Côte d'Ivoire," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 237-255.
    23. Dupas, Pascaline & Robinson, Jonathan, 2012. "The (hidden) costs of political instability: Evidence from Kenya's 2007 election crisis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 314-329.
    24. Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude, 2017. "War during childhood: The long run effects of warfare on health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 117-130.
    25. Ryan Brown & Verónica Montalva & Duncan Thomas & Andrea Velásquez, 2019. "Impact of Violent Crime on Risk Aversion: Evidence from the Mexican Drug War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 892-904, December.
    26. Oeindrila Dube & Omar García-Ponce & Kevin Thom, 2016. "From Maize To Haze: Agricultural Shocks And The Growth Of The Mexican Drug Sector," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(5), pages 1181-1224, October.
    27. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Binswanger, Hans P, 1993. "Wealth, Weather Risk and the Composition and Profitability of Agricultural Investments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 56-78, January.
    28. Lisa Cameron & Manisha Shah, 2015. "Risk-Taking Behavior in the Wake of Natural Disasters," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 484-515.
    29. Chie Hanaoka & Hitoshi Shigeoka & Yasutora Watanabe, 2018. "Do Risk Preferences Change? Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 298-330, April.
    30. Tom Bundervoet & Philip Verwimp & Richard Akresh, 2009. "Health and Civil War in Rural Burundi," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
    31. Magda Tsaneva & Pinar Mine Gunes, 2020. "The effect of violent crime on teenage pregnancy in Mexico," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 141-164, March.
    32. Callen, Mike & Isaqzadeh, Mohammad & Long, James D. & Sprenger, Charles, 2014. "Violence and risk preference: experimental evidence from Afghanistan," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102932, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    33. Kihlstrom, Richard E & Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 1979. "A General Equilibrium Entrepreneurial Theory of Firm Formation Based on Risk Aversion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 719-748, August.
    34. Grossman, Michael, 1972. "On the Concept of Health Capital and the Demand for Health," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(2), pages 223-255, March-Apr.
    35. Patterson, T.L. & Mausbach, B. & Lozada, R. & Staines-Orozco, H. & Semple, S.J. & Fraga-Vallejo, M. & Orozovich, P. & Abramovitz, D. & De La Torre, A. & Amaro, H. & Martinez, G. & Magis-Rodríguez, C. , 2008. "Efficacy of a brief behavioral intervention to promote condom use among female sex workers in Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 98(11), pages 2051-2057.
    36. Grossman, Michael, 2000. "The human capital model," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 347-408, Elsevier.
    37. Paul Gertler & Manisha Shah & Stefano M. Bertozzi, 2005. "Risky Business: The Market for Unprotected Commercial Sex," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 518-550, June.
    38. Michael Callen & Mohammad Isaqzadeh & James D. Long & Charles Sprenger, 2014. "Violence and Risk Preference: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 123-148, January.
    39. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    40. Adela de la Torre & Arthur Havenner & Katherine Adams & Justin Ng, 2010. "Premium sex: Factors influencing the negotiated price of unprotected sex by female sex workers in Mexico," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 13, pages 67-90, May.
    41. Brown, Ryan & Velásquez, Andrea, 2017. "The effect of violent crime on the human capital accumulation of young adults," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1-12.
    42. Tilman Brück & Wim Naudé & Philip Verwimp, 2013. "Business under Fire: Entrepreneurship and Violent Conflict in Developing Countries," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/167759, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    43. Eckel, Catherine C & Grossman, Philip J, 2001. "Chivalry and Solidarity in Ultimatum Games," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(2), pages 171-188, April.
    44. Rao, Vijayendra & Gupta, Indrani & Lokshin, Michael & Jana, Smarajit, 2003. "Sex workers and the cost of safe sex: the compensating differential for condom use among Calcutta prostitutes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 585-603, August.
    45. Anjini Kochar, 1999. "Smoothing Consumption by Smoothing Income: Hours-of-Work Responses to Idiosyncratic Agricultural Shocks in Rural India," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(1), pages 50-61, February.
    46. Susan W. Parker & Petra E. Todd, 2017. "Conditional Cash Transfers: The Case of Progresa/Oportunidades," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 866-915, September.
    47. Adela de la Torre & Arthur Havenner & Katherine Adams & Justin Ng, 2010. "Premium Sex: Factors Influencing the Negotiated Price of Unprotected Sex by Female Sex Workers in Mexico," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 67-90, May.
    48. Said, Farah & Afzal, Uzma & Turner, Ginger, 2015. "Risk taking and risk learning after a rare event: Evidence from a field experiment in Pakistan," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 167-183.
    49. de Waal, Alex, 2010. "Reframing governance, security and conflict in the light of HIV/AIDS: A synthesis of findings from the AIDS, security and conflict initiative," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 114-120, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elice, Paola & Martínez Flores, Fernanda & Reichert, Arndt R., 2023. "Religious terrorism, forced migration, and women's empowerment: Evidence from the Boko Haram insurgency," Ruhr Economic Papers 1044, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shoji, Masahiro & Tsubota, Kenmei, 2022. "Sexual exploitation of trafficked children: Survey evidence from child sex workers in Bangladesh," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 101-117.
    2. Kettlewell, Nathan & Rijsdijk, Fruhling & Siribaddana, Sisira & Sumathipala, Athula & Tymula, Agnieszka & Zavos, Helena & Glozier, Nicholas, 2018. "Civil War, Natural Disaster and Risk Preferences: Evidence from Sri Lankan Twins," IZA Discussion Papers 11901, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Nicholas Ingwersen & Elizabeth Frankenberg & Duncan Thomas, 2023. "Evolution of Risk Aversion over Five Years after a Major Natural Disaster," NBER Working Papers 31102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ingwersen, Nicholas & Frankenberg, Elizabeth & Thomas, Duncan, 2023. "Evolution of risk aversion over five years after a major natural disaster," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    5. Ella Sargsyan, 2022. "Violent Conflicts and Child Gender Preferences of Parents: Evidence from Nigeria," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp723, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    6. Shoji, Masahiro, 2020. "Early-Life Circumstances and Adult Locus of Control: Evidence from 46 Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 99987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Haile, Kaleab K. & Nillesen, Eleonora & Tirivayi, Nyasha, 2020. "Impact of formal climate risk transfer mechanisms on risk-aversion: Empirical evidence from rural Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    8. Dominic Rohner, 2022. "Conflict, Civil Wars and Human Development," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 22.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    9. Alloush, Mo & Bloem, Jeffrey R., 2022. "Neighborhood violence, poverty, and psychological well-being," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    10. Bharati, Tushar, 2022. "The long shadow of the Kargil War: The effect of early-life stress on education," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    11. Muhammad Nasir & Marc Rockmore & Chih Ming Tan, 2015. "It's No Spring Break in Cancun: The Effects of Exposure to Violence on Risk Preferences, Pro-Social Behavior, and Mental Health," Working Paper series 15-40, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    12. Booth, Alison & Meng, Xin & Fan, Elliott & Zhang, Dandan, 2022. "The direct and intergenerational behavioural consequences of a socio-political upheaval," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 931-958.
    13. Achyuta Adhvaryu & James Fenske, 2013. "War, resilience and political engagement in Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2013-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    14. Tushar Bharati, 2021. "The Long Shadow of the Kargil War: The Effect of Early-life Stress on Education," HiCN Working Papers 347, Households in Conflict Network.
    15. Hönig, Tillman, 2017. "The Impact of Peace: Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 83302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Freitas-Monteiro, Teresa & Ludolph, Lars, 2021. "Barriers to humanitarian migration, victimisation and integration outcomes: evidence from Germany," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110500, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Guido Blasio & Maria Paola & Samuele Poy & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2021. "Massive earthquakes, risk aversion, and entrepreneurship," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 295-322, June.
    18. Kettlewell, Nathan, 2019. "Risk preference dynamics around life events," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 66-84.
    19. Chuang, Yating & Schechter, Laura, 2015. "Stability of experimental and survey measures of risk, time, and social preferences: A review and some new results," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 151-170.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:148:y:2021:i:c:s0304387820301371. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.