IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chieco/v91y2025ics1043951x25000483.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of electricity time-of-use plans: Evidence from the industrial sector in China

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Lingfang
  • Qiu, Jiehong
  • Fang, Gang

Abstract

Time-of-use (TOU) pricing plans are crucial energy market mechanisms implemented worldwide. Using a staggered difference-in-differences research design and hourly electricity data from industrial customers, this study goes beyond simply assessing the effectiveness of TOU pricing. It investigates under which circumstances TOU pricing may effectively contribute to peak shaving and valley filling. Our results indicate that high-peak-price TOU pricing may induce peak-shaving effects for both large- and small-scale industrial customers but does not lead to valley filling. Conversely, low-peak-price TOU pricing increases electricity consumption among large-scale industrial customers, regardless of whether it is a peak or valley period. In terms of expenditure, the shift from a flat rate to TOU pricing is associated with a 1.7 % reduction in monthly electricity costs for large-scale industrial customers. Furthermore, high-peak-price TOU pricing significantly improves demand stability, leading to a 4.7 % reduction in the peak-to-valley load ratio.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Lingfang & Qiu, Jiehong & Fang, Gang, 2025. "The effect of electricity time-of-use plans: Evidence from the industrial sector in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:91:y:2025:i:c:s1043951x25000483
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102390
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X25000483
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102390?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David P. Brown & Andrew Eckert, 2022. "Pricing Patterns in Wholesale Electricity Markets: Unilateral Market Power or Coordinated Behavior?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 168-216, March.
    2. Borenstein, Severin & Bushnell, James & Wolak, Frank, 2002. "Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California's Deregulated Electricity Industry," Staff General Research Papers Archive 13136, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Fell, Harrison & Li, Shanjun & Paul, Anthony, 2014. "A new look at residential electricity demand using household expenditure data," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 37-47.
    4. Chen, Haitao & Zhang, Bin & Wang, Zhaohua, 2022. "Hidden inequality in household electricity consumption: Measurement and determinants based on large-scale smart meter data," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Raj Chetty & Adam Looney & Kory Kroft, 2009. "Salience and Taxation: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1145-1177, September.
    6. Guo, Bowei & Weeks, Melvyn, 2022. "Dynamic tariffs, demand response, and regulation in retail electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    7. Hung, Ming-Feng & Huang, Tai-Hsin, 2015. "Dynamic demand for residential electricity in Taiwan under seasonality and increasing-block pricing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 168-177.
    8. Stephen Poletti & Julian Wright, 2020. "Real‐Time Pricing and Imperfect Competition in Electricity Markets," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 93-135, March.
    9. Wang, Yong & Li, Lin, 2015. "Time-of-use electricity pricing for industrial customers: A survey of U.S. utilities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 89-103.
    10. Allcott, Hunt, 2011. "Rethinking real-time electricity pricing," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 820-842.
    11. Zhou, Yang & Ma, Rong & Su, Yun & Wu, Libo, 2019. "Too big to change: How heterogeneous firms respond to time-of-use electricity price," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    12. Athey, Susan & Imbens, Guido W., 2022. "Design-based analysis in Difference-In-Differences settings with staggered adoption," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 62-79.
    13. Du, Gang & Lin, Wei & Sun, Chuanwang & Zhang, Dingzhong, 2015. "Residential electricity consumption after the reform of tiered pricing for household electricity in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 276-283.
    14. Yueming Qiu & Loren Kirkeide & Yi David Wang, 2018. "Effects of Voluntary Time-of-Use Pricing on Summer Electricity Usage of Business Customers," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 69(2), pages 417-440, February.
    15. James M. Sallee, 2014. "Rational Inattention and Energy Efficiency," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(3), pages 781-820.
    16. Du, Kerui & Yu, Ying & Wei, Chu, 2020. "Climatic impact on China's residential electricity consumption: Does the income level matter?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    18. Adom, Philip Kofi, 2017. "The long-run price sensitivity dynamics of industrial and residential electricity demand: The impact of deregulating electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 43-60.
    19. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    20. Severin Borenstein & James B. Bushnell & Frank A. Wolak, 2002. "Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California's Restructured Wholesale Electricity Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1376-1405, December.
    21. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    22. Ahmad Faruqui, Sanem Sergici, and Lamine Akaba, 2014. "The Impact of Dynamic Pricing on Residential and Small Commercial and Industrial Usage: New Experimental Evidence from Connecticut," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    23. Joshua A. Blonz, 2022. "Making the Best of the Second-Best: Welfare Consequences of Time-Varying Electricity Prices," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(6), pages 1087-1126.
    24. Dennis J. Aigner & Joseph G. Hirschberg, 1985. "Commercial/Industrial Customer Response to Time-Of-Use Electricity Prices: Some Experimental Results," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(3), pages 341-355, Autumn.
    25. Lanot, Gauthier & Vesterberg, Mattias, 2021. "The price elasticity of electricity demand when marginal incentives are very large," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    26. Blake Shaffer, 2020. "Misunderstanding Nonlinear Prices: Evidence from a Natural Experiment on Residential Electricity Demand," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 433-461, August.
    27. Ciwei Dong & Chi To Ng & T. C. E. Cheng, 2017. "Electricity Time-of-Use Tariff with Stochastic Demand," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 26(1), pages 64-79, January.
    28. Peter C. Reiss & Matthew W. White, 2005. "Household Electricity Demand, Revisited," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 853-883.
    29. Jia, Jun-Jun & Ni, Jinlan & Wei, Chu, 2023. "Residential responses to service-specific electricity demand: Case of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    30. Koichiro Ito, 2014. "Do Consumers Respond to Marginal or Average Price? Evidence from Nonlinear Electricity Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 537-563, February.
    31. Lijesen, Mark G., 2007. "The real-time price elasticity of electricity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 249-258, March.
    32. Ahmad Faruqui & Sanem Sergici & Lamine Akaba, 2014. "The Impact of Dynamic Pricing on Residential and Small Commercial and Industrial Usage: New Experimental Evidence from Connecticut," The Energy Journal, , vol. 35(1), pages 137-160, January.
    33. Graziano Abrate, 2008. "Time-of-use pricing and electricity demand response: evidence from a sample of Italian industrial customers," International Journal of Applied Management Science, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 21-40.
    34. Cheong, Tsun Se & Li, Victor Jing & Shi, Xunpeng, 2019. "Regional disparity and convergence of electricity consumption in China: A distribution dynamics approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    35. Katrina Jessoe & David Rapson, 2015. "Commercial and Industrial Demand Response Under Mandatory Time-of-Use Electricity Pricing," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 397-421, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yabin Da & Bin Zeng & Jing-Li Fan & Jiawei Hu & Lanlan Li, 2023. "Heterogeneous responses to climate: evidence from residential electricity consumption," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-19, August.
    2. Capitán, Tabaré & Alpízar, Francisco & Madrigal-Ballestero, Róger & Pattanayak, Subhrendu K., 2021. "Time-varying pricing may increase total electricity consumption: Evidence from Costa Rica," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Lanot, Gauthier & Vesterberg, Mattias, 2021. "The price elasticity of electricity demand when marginal incentives are very large," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    4. Marten Ovaere & Mark Vergouwen, 2025. "Mind the Peak: The Role of Peak Demand Charges and Real-Time Pricing in Residential Electricity Flexibility," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 25/1115, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. Mar Reguant, 2018. "The Efficiency and Sectoral Distributional Implications of Large-Scale Renewable Policies," NBER Working Papers 24398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ayertey, Winfred & Sharifi, Ayyoob & Yoshida, Yuichiro, 2024. "The impact of increase in block pricing on electricity demand responsiveness: Evidence from Ghana," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    7. Mac Clay, Pablo & Börner, Jan & Sellare, Jorge, 2023. "Institutional and macroeconomic stability mediate the effect of auctions on renewable energy capacity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    8. Arne Henningsen & Guy Low & David Wuepper & Tobias Dalhaus & Hugo Storm & Dagim Belay & Stefan Hirsch, 2024. "Estimating Causal Effects with Observational Data: Guidelines for Agricultural and Applied Economists," IFRO Working Paper 2024/03, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    9. Rik Chakraborti & Gavin Roberts, 2023. "How price-gouging regulation undermined COVID-19 mitigation: county-level evidence of unintended consequences," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 196(1), pages 51-83, July.
    10. Ashesh Rambachan & Jonathan Roth, 2020. "Design-Based Uncertainty for Quasi-Experiments," Papers 2008.00602, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    11. Nolan Ritter & Julia Anna Bingler, 2021. "Do homo sapiens know their prices? Insights on dysfunctional price mechanisms from a large field experiment," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 21/348, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    12. Damian Clarke & Kathya Tapia-Schythe, 2021. "Implementing the panel event study," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 21(4), pages 853-884, December.
    13. Chy, Mahfuz & Kyung, Hoyoun, 2023. "The effect of bond market transparency on bank loan contracting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2).
    14. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfœuille, 2020. "Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2964-2996, September.
    15. Kurt Schmidheiny & Sebastian Siegloch, 2023. "On event studies and distributed‐lags in two‐way fixed effects models: Identification, equivalence, and generalization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 695-713, August.
    16. Kirill Borusyak & Xavier Jaravel & Jann Spiess, 2024. "Revisiting Event-Study Designs: Robust and Efficient Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(6), pages 3253-3285.
    17. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Aravena, Claudia & Castillo, Natalia & Ehrlich, Marco & Taou, Nadia & Wagner, Thomas, 2022. "Agroforestry Programs in the Colombian Amazon: Selection, Treatment and Exposure Effects on Deforestation," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 537, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    18. Kayaoglu, Aysegul, 2022. "Do refugees cause crime?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    19. Coraggio, Luca & Pagano, Marco & Scognamiglio, Annalisa & Tåg, Joacim, 2025. "JAQ of all trades: Job mismatch, firm productivity and managerial quality," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    20. Robert W. Hahn & Robert D. Metcalfe, 2021. "Efficiency and Equity Impacts of Energy Subsidies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(5), pages 1658-1688, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:91:y:2025:i:c:s1043951x25000483. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.