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An impact evaluation of investment in infrastructure: The case of a railway connection in Uzbekistan

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  • Yoshino, Naoyuki
  • Abidhadjaev, Umid

Abstract

The Tashguzar–Baysun–Kumkurgan (TBK) railway connection, completed in 2007 in southern Uzbekistan, provided a domestic through line to link rail stretches formerly connected only via neighboring Turkmenistan. We hypothesize that a better integrated domestic rail system would yield economic spillovers beyond the regions actually traversed by the new connector to generate higher growth for neighboring regions and even for the far terminal reaches of the system. We test for this using a difference in difference approach that assesses the impact of the rail connector on economic performance for each of three regional groupings relative to a control group of unaffected regions. We further distinguish effects for the short term (2008), medium term (2009–10), and long term (2011–12). We find statistically significant increases in GDP growth for all three regional groupings at medium or long term horizons with magnitudes of increase up to 2.6 percentage points per year.

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  • Yoshino, Naoyuki & Abidhadjaev, Umid, 2017. "An impact evaluation of investment in infrastructure: The case of a railway connection in Uzbekistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:1-11
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2017.02.001
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    JEL classification:

    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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