China trade: Busting gravity's bounds
Since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, annual growth rates of its imports and exports have increased, and raised tensions between China and some of its major trading partners. Using a gravity model of trade, we find that China's orientation toward foreign trade is much greater than expected for an economy of its size and level of development. Our analysis shows that China's excessive orientation toward foreign trade ("over-trading") varies substantially across countries and we consider various explanations for the over-trading. A comparison of China's export boom with the earlier export booms of more market-based East and Southeast Asian economies shows that China's export boom has exceeded earlier booms in magnitude but not in duration. We conclude with a discussion of the likely scale of future export and import flows from and to China.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bai, Chong-En & Du, Yingjuan & Tao, Zhigang & Tong, Sarah Y., 2004.
"Local protectionism and regional specialization: evidence from China's industries,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 397-417, July.
- Chong-En Bai & Yingjuan Du & Zhigang Tao & Sarah Y. Tong, 2003. "Local Protectionism and Regional Specialization: Evidence from China???s Industries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-565, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Andrew K. Rose, 2002.
"Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?,"
NBER Working Papers
9273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006.
"Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations,"
NBER Working Papers
12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Novy, Dennis, 2008.
"Gravity Redux : Measuring International Trade Costs with Panel Data,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
861, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Dennis Novy, 2013. "Gravity Redux: Measuring International Trade Costs With Panel Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 101-121, 01.
- Dennis Novy, 2011. "Gravity Redux: Measuring International Trade Costs with Panel Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 3616, CESifo Group Munich.
- Dennis Novy, 2013. "Gravity redux: measuring international trade costs with panel data," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59308, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Dennis Novy, 2012. "Gravity Redux: Measuring International Trade Costs with Panel Data," CEP Discussion Papers dp1114, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Alwyn Young, 2000. "The Razor's Edge: Distortions and Incremental Reform in the People's Republic of China," NBER Working Papers 7828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000.
"Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
485, Boston College Department of Economics.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- World Bank, 2008. "World Development Indicators 2008," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 11855.
- Alwyn Young, 2000. "The Razor's Edge: Distortions and Incremental Reform in the People's Republic of China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1091-1135.
- Fung, K. C. & Lau, Lawrence J., 2003. "Adjusted estimates of United States-China bilateral trade balances: 1995-2002," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 489-496, June.
- Ng, Francis & Yeats, Alexander, 2003. "Major trade trends in East Asia : what are their implications for regional cooperation and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3084, The World Bank.
- Barry Naughton, 1996. "China's Emergence and Prospects as a Trading Nation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 273-344.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:19:y:2008:i:5-6:p:455-466. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.