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On the Trade and Price Effects of Preferential Trade Agreements

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  • Falvey, Rod
  • Foster-McGregor, Neil

Abstract

In this paper we extend recent work using the Gravity Model to estimate the trade and price effects of Preferential Trading Arrangements (PTAs), by explicitly taking into account the extent of the preferential access being provided by the importer. This involves specifying a trade model, deriving appropriate PTA variables, appending them to a gravity-type equation and estimating it. We find that relying on the estimated coefficient on a PTA dummy variable overestimates the trade creating effects of PTAs. We also use average tariff and estimated trade cost data to calculate the effects of the PTAs in force in 2006 on trade flows. We show that ignoring the general equilibrium effects of PTA membership greatly distorts the distribution of outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Falvey, Rod & Foster-McGregor, Neil, 2013. "On the Trade and Price Effects of Preferential Trade Agreements," CCES Discussion Paper Series 51, Center for Research on Contemporary Economic Systems, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:ccesdp:51
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maria Cipollina & Luca Salvatici, 2010. "Reciprocal Trade Agreements in Gravity Models: A Meta-Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 63-80, February.
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    11. World Bank, 2008. "World Development Indicators 2008," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 11855, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Preferential Trading Arrangements; Gravity Model; Trade Diversion;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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