The Impacts of Free Trade Agreements on Trade Flows: An Application of the Gravity Model Approach
The proliferation of FTAs appears to have affected economic conditions in many countries through foreign trade. We attempt to discern the impacts of FTAs on foreign trade by using two approaches. One approach is to examine the changes in trade patterns before and after an FTA by using indicators of intra-FTA interdependence. The second approach is the estimation of a gravity equation to discern the impacts of FTAs on bilateral trade flows, i.e. trade creation and diversion effects. In the latter approach we extend the previous studies by enlarging the sample size in terms of the time-period, and also undertake an analysis by disaggregating the trade data with a presumption that the impact of FTAs is different for different sectors. The results of the analysis revealed several interesting observations. Our analysis of the total trade indicates that FTAs bring about trade creation effect and that trade diversion effect is limited. Besides, the results of our analysis of disaggregated trade data show different patterns among different products, and they identify trade diversion effect for many products in the case of the EU, the NAFTA, and the MERCOSUR but not for the case of the AFTA.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 11th floor, Annex, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) 1-3-1, Kasumigaseki Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-8901|
Web page: http://www.rieti.go.jp/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Céline CARRERE, 2003. "Revisiting the Effects of Regional Trading Agreements on trade flows with Proper Specification of the Gravity Model," Working Papers 200310, CERDI.
- Fukao, Kyoji & Okubo, Toshihiro & Stern, Robert M., 2003.
"An econometric analysis of trade diversion under NAFTA,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-24, March.
- Fukao, Kyoji & Okubo, Toshihiro & Stern, Robert M., 2002. "An Econometric Analysis of Trade Diversion under NAFTA," Discussion Paper Series a431, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Kyoji Fukao & Toshihiro Okubo & Robert M. Stern, 2002. "An Econometric Analysis of Trade Diversion under NAFTA," Discussion papers 02011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Kyoji Fukao & Toshihiro Okubo & Robert M Stern, 2002. "An Econometric Analysis of Trade Diversion under NAFTA," Working Papers 491, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Kiyota, Kozo & Urata, Shujiro, 2008. "The role of multinational firms in international trade: The case of Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 338-352, August.
- Kozo Kiyota & Shujiro Urata, 2005. "The Role of Multinational Firms in International Trade: The Case of Japan," Discussion papers 05012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Kozo Kiyota & Shujiro Urata, 2007. "The Role of Multinational Firms in International Trade: The Case of Japan," Working Papers 560, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Aitken, Norman D, 1973. "The Effect of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(5), pages 881-892, December.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, November.
- Schiff, Maurice & Winters, L Alan, 1998. "Regional Integration as Diplomacy," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(2), pages 271-295, May.
- Schiff, Maurice & Winters, L. Alan, 1997. "Regional Integration as Diplomacy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Schiff, Maurice & Winters, L. Alan, 1997. "Regional integration as diplomacy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1801, The World Bank.
- Frankel, Jeffrey & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-jin, 1995. "Trading blocs and the Americas: The natural, the unnatural, and the super-natural," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-95, June.
- Andrew Rose, 2005. "Which International Institutions Promote International Trade?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 682-698, September.
- Rose, Andrew K, 2003. "Which International Institutions Promote International Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3764, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Maskus, Keith E, 1983. "Evidence on Shifts in the Determinants of the Structure of U.S. Manufacturing Foreign Trade, 1958-76," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 415-422, August.
- Masahiro Endoh, 2005. "The effects of the GSTP on trade flow: mission accomplished?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 487-496.
- Maurice Schiff & L. Alan Winters, 2003. "Regional Integration and Development," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15172, December.
- Yusuf Shahid & M. Anjum Altaf & Kaoru Nabeshima, 2004. "Global Change and East Asian Policy Initiatives," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14928, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)