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Toward net zero: Assessing the decarbonization impact of global commercial building electrification

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  • Wang, Tianyi
  • Ma, Minda
  • Zhou, Nan
  • Ma, Zhili

Abstract

Electrification is expected to accelerate the low-carbon transition in building operations globally. However, the extent to which building electrification reduces carbon emissions depends on the decarbonization of electricity. This study is the first to evaluate how the operational carbon intensity of commercial buildings has changed since 2000 and to assess the decarbonization impact of building electrification across different countries via the decomposing structural decomposition method. The key findings indicate that (1) the operational carbon intensity of commercial buildings showed a decreasing trend, with a sharper decline after 2011 (average annual decrease across 16 countries: −3.8 % per year). The electricity emission factor was a critical factor in mitigating carbon intensity growth. (2) Electrification rates hindered the decarbonization of commercial buildings, particularly for space heating (7.95 kgCO2/m2/year), which had the greatest negative impact. Other end-uses had smaller negative effects. However, after 2011, the impact of space heating weakened (2.06 kgCO2/m2/year), whereas the effects of appliances and space cooling began to reverse and contributed positively to decarbonization. (3) The increase in global electrification levels for commercial buildings led to limited decarbonization, with a total reduction of 2456 MtCO2 from 2001 to 2021. Furthermore, strategies to increase electricity decarbonization and accelerate the electrification of commercial buildings are proposed. In summary, this study evaluates the decarbonization impact of building electrification and the contributions of various end uses, offering valuable insights for governments to understand the true effects of building electrification and to develop effective decarbonization policies.

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  • Wang, Tianyi & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Ma, Zhili, 2025. "Toward net zero: Assessing the decarbonization impact of global commercial building electrification," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 383(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:383:y:2025:i:c:s0306261925000170
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125287
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    3. Tuba Rasheed & Hamza Akram & Mahwish Zafar & Md Billal Hossain, 2025. "Assessing the Impact of IT, Trade Globalisation, and Economic Complexity on Carbon Emissions in BRICS Economies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-24, May.
    4. Ruichen Peng & Jili Zhang & Yanli Han, 2025. "Numerical Modelling and Dynamic Evaluation of Building Glass Curtain Wall-Reflected Glare Pollution for Road Vehicle Drivers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-37, April.
    5. Minda Ma & Shufan Zhang & Junhong Liu & Ran Yan & Weiguang Cai & Nan Zhou & Jinyue Yan, 2025. "Building floorspace and stock measurement: A review of global efforts, knowledge gaps, and research priorities," Papers 2503.05824, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    6. Guanghua Zheng & Yifan He & Zhaohan Lu & Yuping Wu, 2025. "Research on Spatial and Temporal Divergence and Influencing Factors of the Coal Industry Transformation and Development Under Energy Security and Dual-Carbon Target," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-28, March.

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