Toward net zero: Assessing the decarbonization impact of global commercial building electrification

Electrification is expected to accelerate the low-carbon transition in building operations globally. However, the extent to which building electrification reduces carbon emissions depends on the decarbonization of electricity. This study is the first to evaluate how the operational carbon intensity of commercial buildings has changed since 2000 and to assess the decarbonization impact of building electrification across different countries via the decomposing structural decomposition method. The key findings indicate that (1) the operational carbon intensity of commercial buildings showed a decreasing trend, with a sharper decline after 2011 (average annual decrease across 16 countries: −3.8 % per year). The electricity emission factor was a critical factor in mitigating carbon intensity growth. (2) Electrification rates hindered the decarbonization of commercial buildings, particularly for space heating (7.95 kgCO2/m2/year), which had the greatest negative impact. Other end-uses had smaller negative effects. However, after 2011, the impact of space heating weakened (2.06 kgCO2/m2/year), whereas the effects of appliances and space cooling began to reverse and contributed positively to decarbonization. (3) The increase in global electrification levels for commercial buildings led to limited decarbonization, with a total reduction of 2456 MtCO2 from 2001 to 2021. Furthermore, strategies to increase electricity decarbonization and accelerate the electrification of commercial buildings are proposed. In summary, this study evaluates the decarbonization impact of building electrification and the contributions of various end uses, offering valuable insights for governments to understand the true effects of building electrification and to develop effective decarbonization policies.