IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v384y2025ics0306261925001801.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Provincial allocation of China's commercial building operational carbon toward carbon neutrality

Author

Listed:
  • Deng, Yanqiao
  • Ma, Minda
  • Zhou, Nan
  • Zou, Chenchen
  • Ma, Zhili
  • Yan, Ran
  • Ma, Xin

Abstract

National carbon peak track and optimized provincial carbon allocations are crucial for mitigating regional inequality within the commercial building sector during China's transition to carbon neutrality. This study proposes a top-down model to evaluate carbon trajectories in operational commercial buildings up to 2060. Through Monte Carlo simulation, scenario analysis is conducted to assess carbon peak values and the corresponding peaking year, thereby optimizing carbon allocation schemes both nationwide and provincially. The results reveal that (1) the nationwide carbon peak for commercial building operations is projected to reach 890 (± 50) megatons of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) by 2028 (± 3.7 years) in the case of the business-as-usual scenario, with a 7.87 % probability of achieving the carbon peak under the decarbonization scenario. (2) Significant disparities will exist among provinces, with Shandong's carbon peak projected at 69.6 (± 4.0) MtCO2 by 2029, approximately 11 times higher than Ningxia's peak of 6.0 (± 0.3) MtCO2 by 2027. (3) Guided by the principle of maximizing the emission reduction potential, the optimal provincial allocation scheme reveals the top three provinces requiring the most significant reductions in the commercial sector: Xinjiang (5.6 MtCO2), Shandong (4.8 MtCO2), and Henan (4.7 MtCO2). Overall, this study offers optimized provincial carbon allocation strategies within the commercial building sector in China via dynamic scenario simulations, with the goal of hitting the carbon peak target and progressing toward a low-carbon future for the building sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Deng, Yanqiao & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Zou, Chenchen & Ma, Zhili & Yan, Ran & Ma, Xin, 2025. "Provincial allocation of China's commercial building operational carbon toward carbon neutrality," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 384(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:384:y:2025:i:c:s0306261925001801
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125450
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261925001801
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125450?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fang, Kai & Tang, Yiqi & Zhang, Qifeng & Song, Junnian & Wen, Qi & Sun, Huaping & Ji, Chenyang & Xu, Anqi, 2019. "Will China peak its energy-related carbon emissions by 2030? Lessons from 30 Chinese provinces," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    2. Shuai, Chenyang & Shen, Liyin & Jiao, Liudan & Wu, Ya & Tan, Yongtao, 2017. "Identifying key impact factors on carbon emission: Evidences from panel and time-series data of 125 countries from 1990 to 2011," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 310-325.
    3. Wang, Meng & Yu, Hang & Liu, Yupeng & Lin, Jianyi & Zhong, Xianzhun & Tang, Yin & Guo, Haijin & Jing, Rui, 2024. "Unlock city-scale energy saving and peak load shaving potential of green roofs by GIS-informed urban building energy modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 366(C).
    4. Cheng, Cheng & Dong, Kangyin & Wang, Zhen & Liu, Shulin & Jurasz, Jakub & Zhang, Haoran, 2023. "Rethinking the evaluation of solar photovoltaic projects under YieldCo mode: A real option perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    5. Guo, Xuepeng & Pang, Jun, 2023. "Analysis of provincial CO2 emission peaking in China: Insights from production and consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    6. Nan Zhou & Nina Khanna & Wei Feng & Jing Ke & Mark Levine, 2018. "Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(11), pages 978-984, November.
    7. Shufan Zhang & Minda Ma & Nan Zhou & Jinyue Yan & Wei Feng & Ran Yan & Kairui You & Jingjing Zhang & Jing Ke, 2024. "Estimation of Global Building Stocks by 2070: Unlocking Renovation Potential," Papers 2406.04074, arXiv.org.
    8. Zhang, Junjie & Yan, Zengfeng & Bi, Wenbei & Ni, Pingan & Lei, Fuming & Yao, Shanshan & Lang, Jiachen, 2023. "Prediction and scenario simulation of the carbon emissions of public buildings in the operation stage based on an energy audit in Xi'an, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    9. Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen & William Hare & Sarah C. B. Raper & Katja Frieler & Reto Knutti & David J. Frame & Myles R. Allen, 2009. "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1158-1162, April.
    10. Wei Huang & Chenyang Shuai & Pengchen Xiang & Xi Chen & Bu Zhao & Jingran Sun, 2024. "Assessing the Consumption-based Water Use of Global Construction Sectors and its Impact to the Local Water Shortage," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(15), pages 6063-6078, December.
    11. Yang, Jingjing & Deng, Zhang & Guo, Siyue & Chen, Yixing, 2023. "Development of bottom-up model to estimate dynamic carbon emission for city-scale buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    12. Wei, Hongqian & Zhang, Youtong & Wang, Yongzhen & Hua, Weiqi & Jing, Rui & Zhou, Yue, 2022. "Planning integrated energy systems coupling V2G as a flexible storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    13. Dong, Kangyin & Li, Jiaman & Zhang, Haoran, 2023. "LNG point supply of villages and towns in China: Challenges and countermeasures," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    14. Ding, Dan & Liu, Xiaoping & Xu, Xiaocong, 2024. "Projecting the future fine-resolution carbon dioxide emissions under the shared socioeconomic pathways for carbon peak evaluation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    15. York, Richard & Rosa, Eugene A. & Dietz, Thomas, 2003. "STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 351-365, October.
    16. Wang, Tianyi & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Ma, Zhili, 2025. "Toward net zero: Assessing the decarbonization impact of global commercial building electrification," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 383(C).
    17. Wang, Jianda & Jiang, Qingzhe & Dong, Xiucheng & Dong, Kangyin, 2021. "Decoupling and decomposition analysis of investments and CO2 emissions in information and communication technology sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    18. Li, Dezhi & Huang, Guanying & Zhu, Shiyao & Chen, Long & Wang, Jiangbo, 2021. "How to peak carbon emissions of provincial construction industry? Scenario analysis of Jiangsu Province," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    19. Lin, Yuancheng & Ma, Linwei & Li, Zheng & Ni, Weidou, 2023. "The carbon reduction potential by improving technical efficiency from energy sources to final services in China: An extended Kaya identity analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    20. Zhang, Xi & Geng, Yong & Shao, Shuai & Wilson, Jeffrey & Song, Xiaoqian & You, Wei, 2020. "China’s non-fossil energy development and its 2030 CO2 reduction targets: The role of urbanization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    21. Xiaoyang Zhong & Mingming Hu & Sebastiaan Deetman & Bernhard Steubing & Hai Xiang Lin & Glenn Aguilar Hernandez & Carina Harpprecht & Chunbo Zhang & Arnold Tukker & Paul Behrens, 2021. "Global greenhouse gas emissions from residential and commercial building materials and mitigation strategies to 2060," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    22. Tan, Jiawei & Chen, Xingyu & Bu, Yang & Wang, Feng & Wang, Jialing & Huang, Xianan & Hu, Zhenda & Liu, Lin & Lin, Changzhui & Meng, Chao & Lin, Jian & Xie, Shan & Xu, Jinmei & Jing, Rui & Zhao, Yingru, 2024. "Incorporating FFTA based safety assessment of lithium-ion battery energy storage systems in multi-objective optimization for integrated energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 367(C).
    23. Yan, Ran & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Xiang, Xiwang & Mao, Chao, 2023. "Towards COP27: Decarbonization patterns of residential building in China and India," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hong Yuan & Minda Ma & Nan Zhou & Zhili Ma, 2025. "Assessing provincial carbon budgets for residential buildings to advance net-zero ambitions," Papers 2503.05795, arXiv.org.
    2. Guanghua Zheng & Yifan He & Zhaohan Lu & Yuping Wu, 2025. "Research on Spatial and Temporal Divergence and Influencing Factors of the Coal Industry Transformation and Development Under Energy Security and Dual-Carbon Target," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-28, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuan, Hong & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Xie, Hui & Ma, Zhili & Xiang, Xiwang & Ma, Xin, 2024. "Battery electric vehicle charging in China: Energy demand and emissions trends in the 2020s," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    2. Ma, Minda & Ma, Xin & Cai, Wei & Cai, Weiguang, 2020. "Low carbon roadmap of residential building sector in China: Historical mitigation and prospective peak," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    3. Zou, Chenchen & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & You, Kairui & Zhang, Shufan, 2023. "Toward carbon free by 2060: A decarbonization roadmap of operational residential buildings in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    4. Li, Rui & Liu, Qiqi & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Yuan & Yu, Yanhui & Zhang, Yihao, 2023. "Echelon peaking path of China's provincial building carbon emissions: Considering peak and time constraints," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    5. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2021. "Dynamic scenario simulations of carbon emission peak in China's city-scale urban residential building sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    6. Minda Ma & Shufan Zhang & Junhong Liu & Ran Yan & Weiguang Cai & Nan Zhou & Jinyue Yan, 2025. "Building floorspace and stock measurement: A review of global efforts, knowledge gaps, and research priorities," Papers 2503.05824, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    7. Yanyan Ke & Lu Zhou & Minglei Zhu & Yan Yang & Rui Fan & Xianrui Ma, 2023. "Scenario Prediction of Carbon Emission Peak of Urban Residential Buildings in China’s Coastal Region: A Case of Fujian Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-17, January.
    8. Huo, Tengfei & Du, Qianxi & Xu, Linbo & Shi, Qingwei & Cong, Xiaobo & Cai, Weiguang, 2023. "Timetable and roadmap for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality of China's building sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    9. Yuxue Zhang & Rui Wang & Xingyuan Yang & He Zhang, 2023. "Can China Achieve Its Carbon Emission Peak Target? Empirical Evidence from City-Scale Driving Factors and Emission Reduction Strategies," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, May.
    10. Mingchen Yang & Lei Wang & Hang Hu, 2024. "Analysis of Factors Influencing the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Carbon Intensity in Western China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-19, April.
    11. Yang, Yi & Qin, Huan, 2024. "The uncertainties of the carbon peak and the temporal and regional heterogeneity of its driving factors in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    12. Yuanfan Zheng & Liang Chen & Haipeng Zhao, 2024. "Assessing Building Energy Savings and the Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential of Green Roofs in Shanghai Using a GIS-Based Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-23, September.
    13. Huo, Tengfei & Ma, Yuling & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang, 2022. "Carbon emissions in China's urban residential building sector through 2060: A dynamic scenario simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    14. Yu Li & Yanjun Zhang & Xiaoyan Li, 2024. "Insight into Carbon Emissions in Economically Developed Regions Based on Land Use Transitions: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-21, November.
    15. Bo Yang & Minhaj Ali & Shujahat Haider Hashmi & Mohsin Shabir, 2020. "Income Inequality and CO 2 Emissions in Developing Countries: The Moderating Role of Financial Instability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-24, August.
    16. José-Manuel Giménez-Gómez & Jordi Teixidó-Figueras & Cori Vilella, 2016. "The global carbon budget: a conflicting claims problem," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 693-703, June.
    17. Fander Falconí & Rafael Burbano & Jesus Ramos-Martin & Pedro Cango, 2019. "Toxic Income as a Trigger of Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-25, April.
    18. Liu, Qiqi & Liu, Yuan & Cai, Weiguang & Du, Yongjie, 2025. "Multi-dimensional building carbon emissions echelon peak target setting in China based on building types, sources, and indicators," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 386(C).
    19. Fatemeh Dehdar & Nuno Silva & José Alberto Fuinhas & Matheus Koengkan & Nazia Nazeer, 2022. "The Impact of Technology and Government Policies on OECD Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-17, November.
    20. Wang, Shubin & Li, Jiabao & Lu, Quanying, 2024. "Optimization of carbon peaking achieving paths in China's transportation sector under digital feature clustering," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:384:y:2025:i:c:s0306261925001801. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.