Carbon emission reduction effects of heterogeneous car travelers under green travel incentive strategies

Encouraging car travelers to switch to public transport is an effective measure to alleviate urban traffic congestion and reduce traffic carbon emissions. This study integrates travel survey data with multi-dimensional individual travel data to focus on incentive strategies. The research identifies key target groups for green travel incentives and quantifies the carbon reduction potential and cost-benefit effectiveness of differentiated incentive strategies for heterogeneous car users. Using Nanjing as a case study, the results show that low-income groups, long-distance commuters, and those with lower car dependency are primary targets users for these incentives. The optimal periods for implementing these strategies are during morning and evening peak commuting times. There is a positive correlation between overall carbon reduction and incentive levels. With a green travel incentive of 0.5 yuan per trip, the target group’s carbon emissions from travel decreased by 27.3%. The highest cost-effectiveness was observed with a 0.1 yuan per trip incentive, resulting in a reduction of approximately 280 yuan per ton of carbon. This study provides crucial insights for designing effective green incentive strategies, enhancing both cost-efficiency and carbon reduction in urban transport.