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Agriculture and economic growth in Ethiopia: growth multipliers from a four-sector simulation model

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  • Block, Steven A.

Abstract

Agriculture accounts for over half of Ethiopian GDP, yet the case for agriculture as a focus of economic growth strategies must rely on identifying a set of intersectoral linkages through which agricultural growth contributes to the growth of nonagriculture in the Ethiopian economy. This article develops a four-sector numerical simulation model of economic growth in Ethiopia which permits the calculation of macroeconomic growth multipliers resulting from income shocks to agriculture, services, modern industry, and traditional industry. The resulting growth multipliers are 1.54 for agriculture, 1.80 for services, 1.34 for modern industry, and 1.22 for traditional industry. These results depict an economy in which intersectoral linkages operate on a highly uneven basis. These limits are reflected in the wide disparity between sectoral growth multipliers and by substantial differences in the patterns of their decomposition. The policy relevance of these findings relate, in part, to the distributional implications of growth in particular sectors. Poverty in Ethiopia is disproportionately rural. An income shock to agriculture is clearly the most progressive choice, indicating the need to highlight agricultural development in growth strategies for Ethiopia. Yet, the simulation results further indicate that doing so imposes relatively little trade off against total benefit. While a $1 service sector income shock generates $0.80 in indirect benefits, a $1 agricultural income shock still generates $0.54 in indirect gains - a somewhat smaller benefit, bnt one likely to make the greatest possible impact on poverty reduction. © 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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  • Block, Steven A., 1999. "Agriculture and economic growth in Ethiopia: growth multipliers from a four-sector simulation model," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 241-252, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agecon:v:20:y:1999:i:3:p:241-252
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    1. Lewis, Blane D. & Thorbecke, Erik, 1992. "District-level economic linkages in Kenya: Evidence based on a small regional social accounting matrix," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 881-897, June.
    2. Haggblade, Steven & Hazell, Peter, 1989. "Agricultural technology and farm-nonfarm growth linkages," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 345-364, December.
    3. Haggblade, Steven & Hazell, Peter & Brown, James, 1989. "Farm-nonfarm linkages in rural sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 17(8), pages 1173-1201, August.
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    1. Mateusz J. Filipski & J. Edward Taylor & Karen E. Thome & Benjamin Davis, 2015. "Effects of treatment beyond the treated: a general equilibrium impact evaluation of Lesotho's cash grants program," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(2), pages 227-243, March.
    2. Chebbi, Houssem Eddine & Lachaal, Lassaad, 2007. "Agricultural Sector and Economic Growth in Tunisia: Evidence from Co-integration and Error Correction Mechanism," 103rd Seminar, April 23-25, 2007, Barcelona, Spain 9416, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Bezemer, Dirk & Headey, Derek, 2008. "Agriculture, Development, and Urban Bias," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1342-1364, August.
    4. Haji, Jema, 2008. "Economic efficiency and marketing performance of vegetable production in the eastern and central parts of Ethiopia," Department of Economics publications 1730, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Economics.
    5. Dorothée BOCCANFUSO & Tambi Samuel KABORE, 2004. "Macroeconomic Growth, Sectoral Quality Of Growth And Poverty In Developing Countries: Measure And Application To Burkina Faso," Cahiers de recherche 04-07, Departement d'Economique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    6. Aksoy , M. Ataman & Isik-Dikmelik, Aylin, 2008. "Are low food prices pro-poor ? net food buyers and sellers in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4642, The World Bank.
    7. Stefan Dercon & Douglas Gollin, 2014. "Agriculture in African Development: A Review of Theories and Strategies," CSAE Working Paper Series 2014-22, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    8. Diao, Xinshen & Fekadu, Belay & Haggblade, Steven & Seyoum Taffesse, Alemayehu & Wamisho, Kassu & Yu, Bingxin, 2007. "Agricultural growth linkages in Ethiopia: Estimates using fixed and flexible price models," IFPRI discussion papers 695, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Asep Suryahadi & Daniel Suryadarma & Sudarno Sumarto & Jack Molyneaux, 2006. "Agricultural Demand Linkages and Growth Multiplier in Rural Indonesia," Development Economics Working Papers 22551, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    10. World Bank, 2007. "Ethiopia - Accelerating Equitable Growth : Country Economic Memorandum, Part 2. Thematic Chapters," World Bank Other Operational Studies 7866, The World Bank.
    11. Feleke, Shiferaw & Zegeye, Tesfaye, 2006. "Adoption of improved maize varieties in Southern Ethiopia: Factors and strategy options," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 442-457, October.
    12. Gelan, Ayele, 2002. "Trade liberalisation and urban-rural linkages: a CGE analysis for Ethiopia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 707-738, November.
    13. Salami, Habibollah & Shahnooshi, Naser & Thomson, Kenneth J., 2009. "The economic impacts of drought on the economy of Iran: An integration of linear programming and macroeconometric modelling approaches," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 1032-1039, February.

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