IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2020-04-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of the Time-frequency Connectedness between Gold Prices, Oil Prices and Hungarian Financial Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Ngo Thai Hung

    (University of Finance-Marketing, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam.)

Abstract

We study the time-frequency connectedness between the global commodities markets (crude oil and gold) and Hungary s equity markets (stock and exchange rate) by using the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity dynamic conditional correlation DCC-GARCH model alongside with the wavelet coherence analysis. Results of this paper highlight the long-term time-varying intercorrelations between the global commodities markets and Hungarian financial markets. Additionally, the estimations of wavelet coherence indicate that the commodities markets have a significant impact on the Hungarian financial markets in the short term, but stock and exchange markets influence crude oil and gold markets in the long run. Our empirical results shed light on the commodity-finance sectors connectedness, which is able to help investors minimize risks to build discretionary portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Ngo Thai Hung, 2020. "Analysis of the Time-frequency Connectedness between Gold Prices, Oil Prices and Hungarian Financial Markets," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 51-59.
  • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2020-04-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/9230/5102
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/9230/5102
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    2. Jain, Anshul & Biswal, P.C., 2016. "Dynamic linkages among oil price, gold price, exchange rate, and stock market in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 179-185.
    3. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 419-440.
    4. Volkov, Nikanor I. & Yuhn, Ky-hyang, 2016. "Oil price shocks and exchange rate movements," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 18-30.
    5. Jain, Anshul & Biswal, Pratap Chandra, 2019. "Does internet search interest for gold move the gold spot, stock and exchange rate markets? A study from India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 501-507.
    6. Creti, Anna & Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 16-28.
    7. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14980 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Mollick, André Varella & Sakaki, Hamid, 2019. "Exchange rates, oil prices and world stock returns," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 585-602.
    10. Singhal, Shelly & Choudhary, Sangita & Biswal, Pratap Chandra, 2019. "Return and volatility linkages among International crude oil price, gold price, exchange rate and stock markets: Evidence from Mexico," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 255-261.
    11. Xu, Weiju & Ma, Feng & Chen, Wang & Zhang, Bing, 2019. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between oil and stock markets: Evidence from China and the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 310-320.
    12. Raza, Naveed & Jawad Hussain Shahzad, Syed & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2016. "Asymmetric impact of gold, oil prices and their volatilities on stock prices of emerging markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 290-301.
    13. Fang, Chung-Rou & You, Shih-Yi, 2014. "The impact of oil price shocks on the large emerging countries' stock prices: Evidence from China, India and Russia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 330-338.
    14. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2013. "A wavelet decomposition approach to crude oil price and exchange rate dependence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-57.
    15. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2015. "The impact of oil price shocks on the stock market return and volatility relationship," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 41-54.
    16. Nagayev, Ruslan & Disli, Mustafa & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Ng, Adam, 2016. "On the dynamic links between commodities and Islamic equity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 125-140.
    17. Yijin He & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2019. "Conditional Dependence between Oil Prices and Exchange Rates in BRICS Countries: An Application of the Copula-GARCH Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-25, June.
    18. Wang, Yu Shan & Chueh, Yen Ling, 2013. "Dynamic transmission effects between the interest rate, the US dollar, and gold and crude oil prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 792-798.
    19. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    20. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2010. "Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 399-408, March.
    21. Kaufmann, Thomas D. & Winters, Richard A., 1989. "The price of gold : A simple model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 309-313, December.
    22. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti, 2015. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock returns in China," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 23(4), pages 657-676, October.
    23. Seyyedsajjad Seyyedi, 2017. "Analysis of the Interactive Linkages Between Gold Prices, Oil Prices, and Exchange Rate in India," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 65-79, January.
    24. Ahmed Shafique Joyo & Lin Lefen, 2019. "Stock Market Integration of Pakistan with Its Trading Partners: A Multivariate DCC-GARCH Model Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-23, January.
    25. Ferrer, Román & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & López, Raquel & Jareño, Francisco, 2018. "Time and frequency dynamics of connectedness between renewable energy stocks and crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-20.
    26. brayek, Angham ben & Sebai, Saber & Naoui, Kamel, 2015. "A study of the interactive relationship between oil price and exchange rate: A copula approach and a DCC-MGARCH model," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 173-189.
    27. Wang, Xunxiao & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Volatility spillovers between crude oil and Chinese sectoral equity markets: Evidence from a frequency dynamics perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 995-1009.
    28. Areli Bermudez Delgado, Nancy & Bermudez Delgado, Estefanía & Saucedo, Eduardo, 2018. "The relationship between oil prices, the stock market and the exchange rate: Evidence from Mexico," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 266-275.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Xu & Yang, Xian & He, Qizhi, 2022. "Multi-scale systemic risk and spillover networks of commodity markets in the bullish and bearish regimes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2023. "What do we know about the price spillover between green bonds and Islamic stocks and stock market indices?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Singhal, Shelly & Choudhary, Sangita & Biswal, Pratap Chandra, 2019. "Return and volatility linkages among International crude oil price, gold price, exchange rate and stock markets: Evidence from Mexico," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 255-261.
    2. Kumeka, Terver Theophilus & Uzoma-Nwosu, Damian Chidozie & David-Wayas, Maria Onyinye, 2022. "The effects of COVID-19 on the interrelationship among oil prices, stock prices and exchange rates in selected oil exporting economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Akkoc, Ugur & Civcir, Irfan, 2019. "Dynamic linkages between strategic commodities and stock market in Turkey: Evidence from SVAR-DCC-GARCH model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 231-239.
    4. K.S., Sujit & Ray, Subhajyoti, 2023. "Linear and nonlinear asymmetric relationship in crude oil, gold, stock market and exchange rates: An evidence from the UAE," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Evrim Mandacı, Pınar & Cagli, Efe Çaglar & Taşkın, Dilvin, 2020. "Dynamic connectedness and portfolio strategies: Energy and metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Abdelbari El Khamlichi & Thi Hong Van Hoang & Wing‐keung Wong, 2016. "Is Gold Different for Islamic and Conventional Portfolios? A Sectorial Analysis," Post-Print hal-02965765, HAL.
    7. Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Zhu, Zhenzhen & El Khamlichi, Abdelbari & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2019. "Does the Shari’ah screening impact the gold-stock nexus? A sectorial analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 617-626.
    8. Xie He & Tetsuya Takiguchi & Tadahiro Nakajima & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "Spillover effects between energies, gold, and stock: the United States versus China," Energy & Environment, , vol. 31(8), pages 1416-1447, December.
    9. Wen, Danyan & Liu, Li & Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Extreme risk spillovers between crude oil prices and the U.S. exchange rate: Evidence from oil-exporting and oil-importing countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    10. Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Adekoya, Oluwasegun Babatunde & Rashidi, Muhammad Mahdi & Ghasemi Doudkanlou, Mohammad & Dolatabadi, Ali, 2022. "Forecast of Bayesian-based dynamic connectedness between oil market and Islamic stock indices of Islamic oil-exporting countries: Application of the cascade-forward backpropagation network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Li, Lei & Yin, Libo & Zhou, Yimin, 2016. "Exogenous shocks and the spillover effects between uncertainty and oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 224-234.
    12. Kumar, Satish, 2019. "Asymmetric impact of oil prices on exchange rate and stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 41-51.
    13. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian‐Zhou Teng & Muhammad Imran Khan & Muhammad Fayaz Khan, 2023. "Stock market reaction to macroeconomic variables: An assessment with dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2436-2448, July.
    14. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mishra, Bibhuti Ranjan & Solarin, Sakiru Adebola, 2021. "Analysing the spillovers between crude oil prices, stock prices and metal prices: The importance of frequency domain in USA," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    15. Tanin, Tauhidul Islam & Sarker, Ashutosh & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan, 2022. "Does oil impact gold during COVID-19 and three other recent crises?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    16. Khan, Muhammad Imran & Teng, Jian-Zhou & Khan, Muhammad Kamran & Jadoon, Arshad Ullah & Khan, Muhammad Fayaz, 2021. "The impact of oil prices on stock market development in Pakistan: Evidence with a novel dynamic simulated ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    17. David Iheke Okorie & Boqiang Lin, 2022. "Crude oil market and Nigerian stocks: An asymmetric information spillover approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4002-4017, October.
    18. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Wali, Muammer & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2020. "Islamic stocks, conventional stocks, and crude oil: Directional volatility spillover analysis in BRICS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    19. Riadh Abed & Amna Zardoub, 2019. "On the co-movements among gold and other financial markets: a multivariate time-varying asymmetric approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 701-719, October.
    20. Suresh Kumar & Ankit Kumar & Gurcharan Singh, 2023. "Causal relationship among international crude oil, gold, exchange rate, and stock market: Fresh evidence from NARDL testing approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 47-57, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price; gold price; stock market; exchange rate; DCC-GARCH; wavelet technique; Hungary.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2020-04-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.