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Formal and Informal Risk Sharing in LDCs: Theory and Empirical Evidence

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Listed author(s):
  • Pierre Dubois
  • Bruno Jullien
  • Thierry Magnac

Abstract

We develop and estimate a model of dynamic interactions in which commitment is limited and contracts are incomplete to explain the patterns of income and consumption growth in village economies of less developed countries. Households can insure each other through both formal contracts and informal agreements, that is, self-enforcing agreements specifying voluntary transfers. This theoretical setting nests the case of complete markets and the case where only informal agreements are available. We derive a system of nonlinear equations for income and consumption growth. A key prediction of our model is that both variables are affected by lagged consumption as a consequence of the interplay of formal and informal contracting possibilities. In a semiparametric setting, we prove identification, derive testable restrictions, and estimate the model with the use of data from Pakistani villages. Empirical results are consistent with the economic arguments. Incentive constraints due to self-enforcement bind with positive probability and formal contracts are used to reduce this probability. Copyright Copyright 2008 by The Econometric Society.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2008.00857.x
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Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 76 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (07)
Pages: 679-725

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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:76:y:2008:i:4:p:679-725
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
  • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
  • D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
  • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
  • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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