Spillover effects of natural resources on state fragility in Africa

This paper aims to analyze the spillover effects of natural resources on African state fragility. To this end, a dynamic spatial Durbin model was estimated, identifying endogenous and contextual effects. The analysis results showed that the fragility of African states is spatially dependent and that this fragility is a self-reinforcing phenomenon over time. However, for a given country, the fragility of neighboring countries contributes to the attenuation of fragility in that country through the diffusion of propagation signals. Spillover effects from economic growth and Internet use reduce fragility. A robustness analysis distinguishing between different categories of natural resources (gas, oil, coal and minerals) reveals that significant spatial spillover effects mainly stem from gas rents, while oil and mining rents do not exhibit statistically robust spillover effects. This means that the spatial impact of natural resources on state fragility is not uniform and depends on the specific nature of extractive rents. These results suggest participatory management of natural resources to reduce rent-seeking and predatory behaviors. Given the complementarity of African countries in reducing fragility, they need to coordinate their policies to combat insecurity and share experiences in natural resource management.