The Joint Effect of International and Domestic-Level State Capacity on Civil War Risk

This article examines the role of international and domestic-level factors for strengthening states’ capacity. State failure enhances insecurity, since there is not sufficient agency or institutions to provide adequate security guarantees and to put into operation established rules. When the government is unable to address grievances stemming from such insecurity, armed conflict becomes more likely. Links with external institutions and domestic-level capacity that increases prosperity prevent insurgencies and promote stability, however. To this end, this research develops a new theory linking state capacity and the international and domestic-level factors to internal conflict. Empirically, this study examines the risk of civil conflict onset, focusing on the combined effect of international (political globalisation) and domestic-level (GDP per capita) state capacity as the main driving force. The results show that the joint effect of these factors has a negative impact on civil war risk, which is significantly and substantially important.