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The Fall of Bretton Woods: Which Geography Matters?

Author

Listed:
  • Leila Ali

    () (University of Poitiers/CRIEF-MOFIB)

  • Marie Lebreton

    () (University of Bordeaux 4/GRETHA)

Abstract

This paper analyses the spatial diffusion of the speculative attacks during the fall of the Bretton Woods System. First, we study the spatial heterogeneity of the relationship between speculative pressures and their determinants via a locally linear framework. Here, relationships were assumed to reflect mainly geographical space. However, mapping the countries in crisis also showed that the spatial diffusion of attacks was not linear. Therefore, we used a neuro-coefficient smooth transition auto-regressive model to investigate more complex interactions between geographical space and crises. Our results suggest that combining geographical and socio-economic spaces is useful for predicting the location of future victims.

Suggested Citation

  • Leila Ali & Marie Lebreton, 2013. "The Fall of Bretton Woods: Which Geography Matters?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1396-1419.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00173
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "Contagious speculative attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March.
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    3. Ari Tjahjawandita & Tito Dimas Pradono & Rullan Rinaldi, 2009. "Spatial Contagion of Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200906, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Aug 2009.
    4. Leila Ali & Yan Kestens, 2006. "Contagion and Crises Clusters: Toward a Regional Warning System?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(4), pages 814-839, December.
    5. Medeiros, Marcelo & Veiga, Alvaro, 2000. "A Flexible Coefficient Smooth Transition Time Series Model," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 360, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 29 Apr 2004.
    6. McMillen, Daniel P., 1996. "One Hundred Fifty Years of Land Values in Chicago: A Nonparametric Approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 100-124, July.
    7. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
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    11. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel & Tille, Cedric, 2000. "Competitive devaluations: toward a welfare-based approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 217-241, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spatial Econometrics; Neural Network Models; Speculative Attacks; Contagion.;

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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