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The Fall of Bretton Woods: Which Geography Matters?

Listed author(s):
  • Leila Ali

    ()

    (University of Poitiers/CRIEF-MOFIB)

  • Marie Lebreton

    ()

    (University of Bordeaux 4/GRETHA)

Registered author(s):

    This paper analyses the spatial diffusion of the speculative attacks during the fall of the Bretton Woods System. First, we study the spatial heterogeneity of the relationship between speculative pressures and their determinants via a locally linear framework. Here, relationships were assumed to reflect mainly geographical space. However, mapping the countries in crisis also showed that the spatial diffusion of attacks was not linear. Therefore, we used a neuro-coefficient smooth transition auto-regressive model to investigate more complex interactions between geographical space and crises. Our results suggest that combining geographical and socio-economic spaces is useful for predicting the location of future victims.

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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2013/Volume33/EB-13-V33-I2-P132.pdf
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    Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

    Volume (Year): 33 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 1396-1419

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    Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00173
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    1. Rech, Gianluigi & Teräsvirta, Timo & Tschernig, Rolf, 1999. "A simple variable selection technique for nonlinear models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 296, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 06 Apr 2000.
    2. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "Contagious speculative attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March.
    3. Marcelo Cunha Medeiros & Álvaro Veiga & Carlos Eduardo Pedreira, 2000. "Modelling exchange rates: smooth transitions, neural networks, and linear models," Textos para discussão 432, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    4. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    5. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    6. Dasgupta, Amil & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Shortland, Anja, 2011. "Regionality revisited: An examination of the direction of spread of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 831-848, September.
    7. Ari Tjahjawandita & Tito Dimas Pradono & Rullan Rinaldi, 2009. "Spatial Contagion of Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200906, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Aug 2009.
    8. Leila Ali & Yan Kestens, 2006. "Contagion and Crises Clusters: Toward a Regional Warning System?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(4), pages 814-839, December.
    9. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel & Tille, Cedric, 2000. "Competitive devaluations: toward a welfare-based approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 217-241, June.
    10. Medeiros, Marcelo & Veiga, Alvaro, 2000. "A Flexible Coefficient Smooth Transition Time Series Model," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 360, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 29 Apr 2004.
    11. McMillen, Daniel P., 1996. "One Hundred Fifty Years of Land Values in Chicago: A Nonparametric Approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 100-124, July.
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