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Traditional Export Demand Relation: A Cointegration and Parameter Constancy Analysis


  • Jamal HUSEIN



This study empirically estimates the critical parameters of the aggregate export demand function for Jordan by using annual time series data (1970-2004) and by applying both Johansen-Juselius and Saikkonen-Lütkepohl multivariate cointegration procedures. The empirical results confirm that there exists a unique and significant long-run equilibrium relationship among exports, foreign income, relative export price, and domestic output. Our estimation results show that income elasticity is much larger than unity while export price elasticity is slightly above one. The long-run estimate of the export price elasticity reveal that the Marshall-Lerner condition is satisfied for Jordan and currency devaluation may be effective in improving Jordanian exports and her trade balance. Moreover, domestic output has a positive and significant impact on Jordanian exports. Finally, tests for the parameter constancy suggested by Hansen and Johansen (1999) reveal that the hypothesis of stable long-run elasticities could not be rejected.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamal HUSEIN, 2008. "Traditional Export Demand Relation: A Cointegration and Parameter Constancy Analysis," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(2).
  • Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:5:y2008:i:2_4

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. IBRAHIM, Mohamed Abbas, 2012. "Merchandise Export Demand Function For Egypt: A Panel Data Analysis," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1).
    2. Mohammed Abdullah Aljebrin, 2012. "The Determinants of Arab Countries Demand for Saudi Exports: Panel Data Evidence," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 3(2), pages 20-28, September.
    3. Husein, J, 2010. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis In The Mena Region: A Multivariate Cointegration, Causality And Stability Analysis," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).

    More about this item


    Export demand; Elasticity; Cointegration; Stability analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models


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