IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eaa/ijaeqs/v5y2008i2_4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Traditional Export Demand Relation: A Cointegration and Parameter Constancy Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Jamal HUSEIN

Abstract

This study empirically estimates the critical parameters of the aggregate export demand function for Jordan by using annual time series data (1970-2004) and by applying both Johansen-Juselius and Saikkonen-Lütkepohl multivariate cointegration procedures. The empirical results confirm that there exists a unique and significant long-run equilibrium relationship among exports, foreign income, relative export price, and domestic output. Our estimation results show that income elasticity is much larger than unity while export price elasticity is slightly above one. The long-run estimate of the export price elasticity reveal that the Marshall-Lerner condition is satisfied for Jordan and currency devaluation may be effective in improving Jordanian exports and her trade balance. Moreover, domestic output has a positive and significant impact on Jordanian exports. Finally, tests for the parameter constancy suggested by Hansen and Johansen (1999) reveal that the hypothesis of stable long-run elasticities could not be rejected.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamal HUSEIN, 2008. "Traditional Export Demand Relation: A Cointegration and Parameter Constancy Analysis," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:5:y2008:i:2_4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/ijaeqs524.pdf
    Download Restriction: No
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carsten Trenkler, 2008. "Determining p-values for systems cointegration tests with a prior adjustment for deterministic terms," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 19-39, January.
    2. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-397, August.
    4. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing For The Cointegrating Rank Of A Var Process With An Intercept," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 373-406, June.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1997. "Trend adjustment prior to testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,84, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    7. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
    8. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
    9. Augustine C. Arize, 2001. "Traditional export demand relation and parameter instability: An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 28(6), pages 378-396, October.
    10. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 451-464, October.
    11. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    12. Jamal Husein, 2009. "Export-led growth hypothesis: a multivariate cointegration and causality evidence for Jordan," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 42(2), pages 253-266, January-M.
    13. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    15. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    16. Guisan, M.Carmen & Cancelo, M.Teresa, 2002. "Econometric Models of Foreign Trade in OECD Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(2), pages 65-81.
    17. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October.
    18. Bruggeman, Annick & Donati, Paola & Warne, Anders, 2003. "Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 255, European Central Bank.
    19. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter & Kontrus, Karl, 1989. "A new test for structural stability in the linear regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 307-318, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. IBRAHIM, Mohamed Abbas, 2012. "Merchandise Export Demand Function For Egypt: A Panel Data Analysis," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1).
    2. Wani, Mr. Nassir Ul Haq & Dhami, Dr. Jasdeep Kaur & Sidana, Dr. Neeru, 2016. "India's trade linkage with BRCS: An econometric study," MPRA Paper 81949, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Mar 2017.
    3. Mohammed Abdullah Aljebrin, 2012. "The Determinants of Arab Countries Demand for Saudi Exports: Panel Data Evidence," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 3(2), pages 20-28, September.
    4. Bolaji Adesola Adesoye, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of Export Demand in Nigeria," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(36), pages 122-130, May.
    5. Husein, J, 2010. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis In The Mena Region: A Multivariate Cointegration, Causality And Stability Analysis," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    2. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Dynamic Stock Market Interactions between the Canadian, Mexican, and the United States Markets: The NAFTA Experience," Working papers 2008-49, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    3. Husein, J, 2010. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis In The Mena Region: A Multivariate Cointegration, Causality And Stability Analysis," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).
    4. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.
    5. repec:zbw:rwirep:0171 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Piotr Wdowiński, 2011. "Model monetarny kursu równowagi złoty/euro: analiza kointegracyjna," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 67-86.
    7. Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso, 2015. "Money Demand Estimations in Mexico and of its Stability 1986-2010, as well as Some Examples of its Uses," Working Papers 2015-13, Banco de México.
    8. Kirstin Hubrich & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2001. "A Review Of Systems Cointegration Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 247-318.
    9. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? – Cointegrated VAR versus Single Equation Techniques," Ruhr Economic Papers 0171, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Jaidi, Zied, 2014. "Some new evidence on the determinants of money demand in developing countries – A case study of Tunisia," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 30-45.
    11. da Silva, Patricia Pereira & Moreno, Blanca & Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho, 2016. "Firm-specific impacts of CO2 prices on the stock market value of the Spanish power industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 492-501.
    12. Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2017. "Energy-growth long-term relationship under structural breaks. Evidence from Canada, 17 Latin American economies and the USA," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 121-134.
    13. Chandran, V.G.R. & Tang, Chor Foon, 2013. "The impacts of transport energy consumption, foreign direct investment and income on CO2 emissions in ASEAN-5 economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 445-453.
    14. Kuiper, W. Erno & Lutz, Clemens & van Tilburg, Aad, 2002. "Vertical Price Leadership on Local Maize Markets in Benin," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24886, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    17. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    18. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    19. Ouyang, Xiaoling & Lin, Boqiang, 2015. "An analysis of the driving forces of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in China’s industrial sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 838-849.
    20. Alexander Schätz, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects on Emerging Market Sector Indices," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(2), pages 131-169, August.
    21. Levent, Korap, 2006. "Seigniorage revenue and Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 20106, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export demand; Elasticity; Cointegration; Stability analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:5:y2008:i:2_4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. Carmen Guisan (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.