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The Great Recession and America’s geography of unemployment

Author

Listed:
  • Brian Thiede

    (Pennsylvania State University)

  • Shannon Monnat

    (Pennsylvania State University)

Abstract

Background: The Great Recession of 2007-2009 was the most severe and lengthy economic crisis in the US since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The impacts on the population were multi-dimensional, but operated largely through local labor markets. Objective: To examine differences in recession-related changes in county unemployment rates and assess how population and place characteristics shaped these patterns. Methods: We calculate and decompose Theil Indexes to describe recession-related changes in the distribution of unemployment rates between counties and states. We use exploratory spatial statistics to identify geographic clusters of counties that experienced similar changes in unemployment. We use spatial regression to evaluate associations between county-level recession impacts on unemployment and demographic composition, industrial structure, and state context. Results: The recession was associated with increased inequality between county labor markets within states, but declining between-state differences. Counties that experienced disproportionate recession-related increases in unemployment were spatially clustered and characterized by large shares of historically disadvantaged racial and ethnic minority populations, low educational attainment, and heavy reliance on pro-cyclical industries. Associations between these sources of vulnerability were partially explained by unobserved state-level factors. Conclusions: The local consequences of macroeconomic trends are associated with county population characteristics, and the structural contexts and policy environments in which they are embedded. The recession placed upward pressure on within-state disparities in local labor market conditions. Contribution: To present new estimates of the recession’s impact on local labor markets, quantify how heterogeneous impacts affected the distribution of unemployment prevalence, and identify county characteristics associated with disproportionately large recession-related increases in unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Thiede & Shannon Monnat, 2016. "The Great Recession and America’s geography of unemployment," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(30), pages 891-928.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:35:y:2016:i:30
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2016.35.30
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lowenstein, Christopher, 2024. "“Deaths of despair” over the business cycle: New estimates from a shift-share instrumental variables approach," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Wall, Howard, 2023. "The Great, Greater, and Greatest Recessions of US States," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 53(01), January.
    3. Roberto Basile & Sara Basso & Sara Miccoli & Cecilia Reynaud, 2022. "Ageing population in Italy: a space-time analysis," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 76(2), pages 4-12, April-Jun.
    4. Karly S. Ford & Kelly Ochs Rosinger & Qiong Zhu, 2021. "Consolidation of Class Advantages in the Wake of the Great Recession: University Enrollments, Educational Opportunity and Stratification," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 62(7), pages 915-941, November.
    5. Michael R. Kramer & Eric B. Schneider & Jennifer B. Kane & Claire Margerison-Zilko & Jessica Jones-Smith & Katherine King & Pamela Davis-Kean & Joseph G. Grzywacz, 2017. "Getting Under the Skin: Children’s Health Disparities as Embodiment of Social Class," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(5), pages 671-697, October.
    6. Pedro Spindler-Ruiz, 2021. "Mexican Niches in the US Construction Industry: 2009–2015," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 405-427, June.
    7. Murray, Tim, 2019. "Defined benefit pensions and homeownership in the post-Great Recession era," MPRA Paper 92601, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Kemeny, Thomas & Connor, Dylan Shane & Suss, Joel & Xie, Siqiao & Jang, Jiwon & Gu, Zhining, 2026. "Spatial wealth inequality in the United States: theory and evidence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 137667, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Shannon M. Monnat, 2020. "Trends in U.S. Working-Age non-Hispanic White Mortality: Rural–Urban and Within-Rural Differences," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(5), pages 805-834, October.

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    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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