The Interconnected Dynamics of Agricultural Growth, Employment, Renewable Energy, and Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Morocco

The Environmental Kuznets Curve posits that as economies develop, environmental pressures initially increase but subsequently decrease as incomes rise and societies adopt stricter environmental policies. This study explores the impact of CO2 emissions, renewable energy consumption, employment in the agricultural sector, and trade openness on agricultural GDP in Morocco. We utilized annual data from 1990 to 2022 and employed an ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model. The analysis reveals a significant positive long-run relationship between CO₂ emissions and agricultural GDP, indicating that higher emissions are associated with increased agricultural output. In contrast, employment does not exhibit a statistically significant long-term impact on agricultural GDP. Interestingly, renewable energy consumption shows a significant negative effect, suggesting that its current use in agriculture may not be fully efficient or adequately integrated into productive activities. In the short term, the results confirm dynamic interactions among the variables, with positive effects from both CO₂ emissions and renewable energy consumption, while employment fluctuations present mixed outcomes. These conclusions underscore the importance of policies aimed at reducing CO2 emissions, optimizing the use of renewable energies, and promoting trade to foster sustainable growth in Morocco's agricultural sector.