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The Effects of AI on Economic Growth and Employment: Results from the Economic Experts Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Anita Dietrich
  • Oliver Falck
  • Philipp Heil
  • Niklas Potrafke
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

Abstract

Key MessagesAI is expected to significantly accelerate economic growth over the next decade Expert expectations exceed most current estimates in the academic literature A majority of experts support tighter AI regulation – Germany is the notable exceptionAI will likely intensify labor market polarization, with medium-skilled workers most at riskPolicy must balance innovation, regulation, and workforce adaptation to fully realize AI’s benefits

Suggested Citation

  • Anita Dietrich & Oliver Falck & Philipp Heil & Niklas Potrafke & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2026. "The Effects of AI on Economic Growth and Employment: Results from the Economic Experts Survey," EconPol Forum, CESifo, vol. 27(02), pages 25-32, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:epofor:v:27:y:2026:i:02:p:25-32
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francesco Filippucci & Peter Gal & Matthias Schief, 2024. "Miracle or Myth? Assessing the macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence," OECD Artificial Intelligence Papers 29, OECD Publishing.
    2. Leonardo Gambacorta & Han Qiu & Shuo Shan & Daniel M Rees, 2024. "Generative AI and labour productivity: a field experiment on coding," BIS Working Papers 1208, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    4. Anna Kerkhof & Thomas Licht & Manuel Menkhoff & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2024. "Die Nutzung von Künstlicher Intelligenz in der deutschen Wirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 77(08), pages 39-43, August.
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