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Miracle or Myth? Assessing the macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Filippucci
  • Peter Gal
  • Matthias Schief

Abstract

The paper studies the expected macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence (AI) over a 10-year horizon. It builds a novel micro-to-macro framework by combining existing estimates of micro-level performance gains with evidence on the exposure of activities to AI and likely future adoption rates, relying on a multi-sector general equilibrium model with input-output linkages to aggregate the effects. Its main estimates for annual aggregate total-factor productivity growth due to AI range between 0.25-0.6 percentage points (0.4-0.9 pp. for labour productivity). The paper discusses the role of various channels in shaping these macro-level gains and highlights several policy levers to support AI's growth-enhancing effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Filippucci & Peter Gal & Matthias Schief, 2024. "Miracle or Myth? Assessing the macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence," OECD Artificial Intelligence Papers 29, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:comaaa:29-en
    DOI: 10.1787/b524a072-en
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jakub Growiec, 2025. "GNPJE Special Issue on Economic Impacts of Generative AI," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 1-5.
    2. Borowski, Jakub & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Jaworski, Krystian, 2025. "Artificial intelligence and inflation in the EU," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    3. Jacob Dominski & Yong Suk Lee, 2025. "Advancing AI Capabilities and Evolving Labor Outcomes," Papers 2507.08244, arXiv.org.
    4. Alexander Bick & Adam Blandin & David J. Deming & Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Jonas Jessen, 2026. "Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the U.S," NBER Working Papers 34995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Florian Misch & Ben Park & Carlo Pizzinelli & Galen Sher, 2026. "Artificial Intelligence and Productivity in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 12401, CESifo.
    6. Bekkers, Eddy & Humphreys, Lee & Kalachyhin, Hryhorii & Wilczynska, Karolina & Zhao, Danchen, 2025. "Through the looking glass: Artificial intelligence, international trade, and economic growth in the long run," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2025-09, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    7. Iñaki Aldasoro & Leonardo Gambacorta & Rozalia Pal & Debora Revoltella & Christoph Weiss & Marcin Wolski, 2026. "AI adoption, productivity and employment: evidence from European firms," BIS Working Papers 1325, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Growiec, Jakub & Prettner, Klaus, 2025. "The Economics of p(doom) : Scenarios of Existential Risk and Economic Growth in the Age of Transformative AI," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 378, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    9. Leonardo Gambacorta & Enisse Kharroubi & Aaron Mehrotra & Livia Pancotto, 2026. "Economic impact of AI in emerging market economies," BIS Bulletins 121, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Muhammed Yıldırım, 2026. "AI and Trade: Why Europe Cannot Afford to Lag on Adoption," EconPol Forum, CESifo, vol. 27(02), pages 15-20, April.
    11. Anita Dietrich & Oliver Falck & Philipp Heil & Niklas Potrafke & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2026. "The Effects of AI on Economic Growth and Employment: Results from the Economic Experts Survey," EconPol Forum, CESifo, vol. 27(02), pages 25-32, April.
    12. James Lennox & Janine Dixon, 2026. "Occupations, Tasks and Generative AI: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-367, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    13. Nickel, Christiane & Kilponen, Juha & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Koester, Gerrit & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Enders, Almira & Holton, Sarah & Landau, Bettina & Venditti, Fabrizio & Bobeica, Elena & Brand, Cla, 2025. "A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.
    14. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Jappelli, Tullio & Oliviero, Tommaso, 2025. "Exploring Household Adoption and Usage of Generative AI: New Evidence from Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 20762, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

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