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The shadow economy in Portugal: An analysis with the MIMIC approach



The paper estimates the Portuguese Shadow Economy (SE) from 1977 to 2004 and tests the statistical relationships between the SE and other economic variables. In order to carry out the econometric analysis, a multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) model with means and intercepts is applied. The main causes of the Portuguese SE are analyzed and economic policies to reduce it are suggested. An appraisal on the reliability of estimates and an alternative benchmark strategy for the MIMIC approach are proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Dell´Anno, 2007. "The shadow economy in Portugal: An analysis with the MIMIC approach," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 10, pages 253-277, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:10:y:2007:n:2:p:253-277

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Adam, M. C. & Ginsburgh, V., 1985. "The effects of irregular markets on macroeconomic policy : Some estimates for belgium," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 15-33.
    2. Zellner, Arnold, 1970. "Estimation of Regression Relationships Containing Unobservable Independent Variables," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 11(3), pages 441-454, October.
    3. Schneider, Friedrich, 2005. "Shadow economies around the world: what do we really know?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 598-642, September.
    4. Apel,M., 1994. "An Expenditure-Based Estimate of Tax Evasion in Sweden," Papers 1, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
    5. Giles, David E A, 1999. "Measuring the Hidden Economy: Implications for Econometric Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 370-380, June.
    6. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Schneider, Friedrich & Chattopadhyay, Sumana, 2006. "The size and development of the shadow economy: An empirical investigation from states of India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 428-443, August.
    7. Pissarides, Christopher A. & Weber, Guglielmo, 1989. "An expenditure-based estimate of Britain's black economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 17-32, June.
    8. Katarina Ott, 2002. "The Underground Economy in Croatia," Occasional paper series 12, Institute of Public Finance.
    9. Tanzi, Vito, 1999. "Uses and Abuses of Estimates of the Underground Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 338-347, June.
    10. Christopher Bajada & Friedrich Schneider, 2005. "The Shadow Economies Of The Asia-Pacific," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 379-401, October.
    11. Herb J. Schuetze, 2002. "Profiles of Tax Non-compliance Among the Self-Employed in Canada: 1969 to 1992," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 28(2), pages 219-237, June.
    12. Dell'Anno, Roberto, "undated". "Estimating the Shadow Economy in Italy: a Structural Equation Approach," Economics Working Papers 2003-7, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adriana Anamaria Davidescu (Alexandru), 2014. "Investigating the Impact of Unemployment Rate on the Romanian Shadow Economy. A Complex Approach Based on ARDL and SVAR Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 109-127, December.
    2. Roberto Dell'Anno & Ferda Halicioglu, 2010. "An ARDL model of unrecorded and recorded economies in Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(6), pages 627-646, November.
    3. Serguey Braguinsky & Lee G. Branstetter & Andre Regateiro, 2011. "The Incredible Shrinking Portuguese Firm," NBER Working Papers 17265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Buehn, Andreas & Schneider, Friedrich, 2009. "Corruption and the Shadow Economy: A Structural Equation Model Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 4182, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Schneider, Friedrich & Buehn, Andreas, 2012. "Shadow Economies in Highly Developed OECD Countries: What Are the Driving Forces?," IZA Discussion Papers 6891, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. Schneider, Friedrich, 2014. "The Shadow Economy and Shadow Labor Force: A Survey of Recent Developments," IZA Discussion Papers 8278, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    7. Friedrich SCHNEIDER, 2016. "Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy: Methods, Problems and Open Questions," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 256-280, June.
    8. Roberto Dell'Anno & Adalgiso Amendola, 2008. "Istituzioni, Diseguaglianza ed Economia Sommersa: quale relazione?," Quaderni DSEMS 24-2008, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
    9. Friedrich Schneider, 2014. "Outside the State - the Shadow Economy and Shadow Economy Labor Force," CESifo Working Paper Series 4829, CESifo Group Munich.
    10. Mara, Eugenia-Ramona, 2011. "Causes and consequences of underground economy," MPRA Paper 36438, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
    11. Mara, Eugenia Ramona, 2011. "The underground economy in Romania," MPRA Paper 36440, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
    12. Michele Bernasconi, Luca Corazzini, Raffaello Seri, 2012. "Tax Evasion: Does the Tax Burden Matter?," ISLA Working Papers 43, ISLA, Centre for research on Latin American Studies and Transition Economies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    13. Roberto Dell'Anno & Offiong Helen Solomon, 2008. "Shadow economy and unemployment rate in USA: is there a structural relationship? An empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(19), pages 2537-2555.

    More about this item


    shadow economy; MIIMIC model; Portugal;

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other


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