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Equilibrium real effective exchange rate estimation for the Slovak economy

Author

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  • Milan Gylánik

    (National Bank of Slovakia, Monetary Policy Department, Expert Econometric Modelling Analyst)

Abstract

Equilibrium real effective exchange rate estimate for the Slovak economy presented in this paper helps to evaluate the total impact of the development of nominal exchange rates against the currencies of Slovakia’s relevant trading partners, domestic and foreign inflation on the price competitiveness of domestic companies over time. The appreciating trajectory of the equilibrium exchange rate is related to the gradual nominal convergence of the Slovak economy to the developed countries that is founded on the macroeconomic fundamentals development reflecting ongoing real convergence. On the basis of the equilibrium real exchange rate forecast resulting from the predicted values of the fundamentals, further real appreciation can be expected corresponding with the continuing convergence of the economy also in the future without jeopardizing the economic balance. The real exchange rate misalignments contribute to the identification of expansive or restrictive monetary policy influence on the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Milan Gylánik, 2012. "Equilibrium real effective exchange rate estimation for the Slovak economy," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 1(2), pages 97-132.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbk:journl:v:1:y:2012:i:2:p:97-132
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    File URL: http://www.cbcg.me/repec/cbk/journl/vol1no2-5.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    2. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, October.
    3. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aleš Michl, 2016. "Nová kritéria pro přijetí Eura [New Euro Convergence Criteria]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(6), pages 713-729.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real effective exchange rate; equilibrium exchange rate; Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate; Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate; cointegration; Slovak economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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