IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bus/jphile/v13y2019i1n3.html

The unrealistic realist philosophy. The ontology of econometrics revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Mariusz Maziarz

    (Interdisciplinary Centre for Ethics at Faculty of Philosophy at the Jagiellonian University)

Abstract

The argument put forth in this article shows that the hitherto scientific-realist approaches to econometrics are incongruent with the realistically reconstructed empirical macroeconomics. The SR approaches share in common being realist about the relations depicted by (successful) models. The economic models of data are sensitive to minor changes in sample and estimating methods what creates the ‘emerging contrary result’ phenomenon: the community of econometricians accept models that are inconsistent. Being SR about econometrics equals committing oneself to the following trilemma: (1) it is feasible to indicate the successful models that rightly isolate/idealize the regularities of the economy (the knowledge thesis); (2) econometric models are about the economic world (the independence thesis); and, at least in some areas of application, (3) successful econometric models contradict each other.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariusz Maziarz, 2019. "The unrealistic realist philosophy. The ontology of econometrics revisited," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 39-64, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bus:jphile:v:13:y:2019:i:1:n:3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://jpe.ro/pdf.php?id=8545
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://jpe.ro/?id=revista&p=494
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hendry, David F. & Learmer, Edward E. & Poirier, Dale J., 1990. "A Conversation on Econometric Methodology," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(02), pages 171-261, June.
    2. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2014. "Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(2), pages 257-279.
    4. Robert Goldfarb, 1997. "Now you see it, now you don't: emerging contrary results in economics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 221-244.
    5. Cartwright, Nancy, 1994. "Nature's Capacities and Their Measurement," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198235071.
    6. Robert Goldfarb, 1995. "The economist-as-audience needs a methodology of plausible inference," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 201-222.
    7. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2004. "Truth and Robustness in Cross‐country Growth Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 765-798, December.
    8. repec:rnp:ecopol:09111 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Yi-Bin Chiu & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2017. "On The Impact Of Public Debt On Economic Growth: Does Country Risk Matter?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 751-766, October.
    10. Imad A. Moosa, 2019. "The fragility of results and bias in empirical research: an exploratory exposition," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 347-360, October.
    11. Steve Fleetwood, 2017. "The critical realist conception of open and closed systems," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 41-68, January.
    12. Bernt P. Stigum, 2015. "Econometrics and the Philosophy of Economics: Theory-Data Confrontations in Economics," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 7516.
    13. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 2013. "Six Decades of Top Economics Publishing: Who and How?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 162-172, March.
    14. Juhana Hukkinen & Matti Viren, 2017. "How toxic is public debt?," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 13(1/2), pages 53-68.
    15. Christopher A. Pissarides, 1992. "Loss of Skill During Unemployment and the Persistence of Employment Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1371-1391.
    16. Hoover,Kevin D., 2001. "Causality in Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521002882, January.
    17. Mariusz Maziarz, 2017. "The Reinhart-Rogoff controversy as an instance of the ‘emerging contrary result’ phenomenon," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 213-225, July.
    18. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    19. York Winter & Jorge López & Otto von Helversen, 2003. "Ultraviolet vision in a bat," Nature, Nature, vol. 425(6958), pages 612-614, October.
    20. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tiago Cardão-Pito, 2021. "Academic discipline of economics as hedonist philosophy," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 14(1-2), pages 199-207, November.
    2. Christina BANALOPOULOU, 2020. "Nietzsche, Deleuze and Guattari: performative constitution of unpayable debt in finance capitalism," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 91-115, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mariusz MAZIARZ, 2017. "‘Growth in a Time of Debt’ as an example of the logical-positivist science," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 10(2), pages 47-64, May.
    2. İbrahim Özmen & Mihai Mutascu, 2024. "Public Debt and Growth: New Insights," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8706-8736, June.
    3. Janice Boucher Breuer & John McDermott, 2019. "Debt And Depression," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(4), pages 714-730, October.
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3l2vounfl99nvqsr0k24sn3k5l is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Guerini, Mattia & Moneta, Alessio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2020. "The Janus-Faced Nature Of Debt: Results From A Data-Driven Cointegrated Svar Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 24-54, January.
    6. Nicholas Oulton, 2013. "Medium and long run prospects for UK growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis," Discussion Papers 1307, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    7. Mitze, Timo & Matz, Florian, 2015. "Public debt and growth in German federal states: What can Europe learn?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 208-228.
    8. Timothy P. Sharpe, 2013. "Institutional arrangements and public debt threshold limits," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 707-728, November.
    9. Stavros A. Zenios, 2013. "The Cyprus Debt: Perfect Crisis and a Way Forward," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 7(1), pages 3-45, June.
    10. Obiyathulla Ismath Bacha, Abbas Mirakhor, Hossein Askari, 2015. "Risk Sharing in Corporate and Public Finance: The Contribution of Islamic Finance," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 68(274), pages 187-213.
    11. Mark J. McCabe & Frank Mueller-Langer, 2019. "Does Data Disclosure Increase Citations? Empirical Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Leading Economics Journals," JRC Working Papers on Digital Economy 2019-02, Joint Research Centre.
    12. Leila Ben Ltaief, 2014. "Dette publique et croissance économique : investigation empirique pour la zone euro, l’Union européenne et les pays avancés," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 90(2), pages 79-103.
    13. Viktor Dinev, 2017. "“Macroeconomic Imbalances” Factor for the Euro Area Debt Crisis," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 142-177.
    14. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "The causal relationship between debt and growth in EMU countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 974-989.
    15. Bruno Bonizzi, 2015. "Capital Market Inflation in Emerging Markets: the Cases of Brazil and South Korea," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 68(273), pages 115-150.
    16. Skouras, Thanos, 2013. "The sources of profits and their sustainability: A survey of basic theoretical issues," MPRA Paper 46567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Consiglio Andrea & Zenios Stavros A., 2015. "Risk Management Optimization for Sovereign Debt Restructuring," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 181-213, December.
    18. Chowdhury, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous & Prince, Ehsanur Rauf & Shoyeb, Mohammad & Abdullah, Mohammad, 2024. "The threshold effect of institutional quality on sovereign debt and economic stability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 39-59.
    19. Lof, Matthijs & Malinen, Tuomas, 2014. "Does sovereign debt weaken economic growth? A panel VAR analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 403-407.
    20. Paulo André Camuri & Frederico G. Jayme Jr. & Ana Maria Hermeto, 2015. "Fiscal consolidation in developed and emerging economies [Fiscal consolidation in developed and emerging economies]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 25(spe), pages 835-861, December.
    21. Willem Vanlaer & Wim Marneffe & Lode Vereeck & Johan Vanovertveldt, 2015. "Does debt predict growth? An empirical analysis of the relationship between total debt and economic output," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 4(2), pages 79-103, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bus:jphile:v:13:y:2019:i:1:n:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valentin Cojanu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aseeero.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.