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Civil Conflicts, Economic Shocks and Night-time Lights

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  • Ahrens Achim

    (Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy (CEERP) – Institute for Petroleum Engineering, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, UK)

Abstract

This study focuses on the effect of economic growth shocks on the risk of civil conflict outbreak in Africa. The data set covers African first-order administrative units and the time period 1992–2010. Since sub-national GDP is not available for Africa, night-time light data from satellites is used to predict economic growth. Economic growth is then instrumented with rainfall and temperature variables in order to identify the causal effect of economic growth on conflict risk. Furthermore, a spatial autoregressive panel model is estimated to examine the role of spill-over effects. Estimation results suggest strong spill-over effects, but provide no evidence for a significant effect of economic growth on civil conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahrens Achim, 2015. "Civil Conflicts, Economic Shocks and Night-time Lights," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 433-444, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:21:y:2015:i:4:p:433-444:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/peps-2015-0013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kammerlander, Andreas & Schulze, Günther G., 2023. "Local economic growth and infant mortality," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    2. Laville,Camille & Mandon,Pierre Jean-Claude, 2023. "Internal Conflicts and Shocks. A Narrative Meta-Analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10315, The World Bank.
    3. Andreas Forø Tollefsen, 2020. "Experienced poverty and local conflict violence," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(3), pages 323-349, May.
    4. Shapiro, Daniel & Oh, Chang Hoon & Zhang, Peng, 2023. "Nighttime lights data and their implications for IB research," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 29(5).
    5. d'Agostino, Giorgio & Dunne, J. Paul & Pieroni, Luca, 2024. "Food and Peace? Exploring the Link between Conflict and Food Insecurity in Africa," MPRA Paper 122247, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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