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State of Knowledge of Economic Value of Current and Improved Hurricane Forecasts

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  • Sutter Daniel

    () (Sorrell College of Business, Troy University, Troy, AL 36082, USA)

  • Ewing Bradley T.

    () (Rawls College of Business and Wind Science & Engineering Research Center, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409–2101, USA)

Abstract

This paper surveys the literature on the value of current and potentially improved hurricane forecasts from the National Hurricane Center. Research on the societal impacts of hurricanes demonstrates that forecasts are likely generating substantial benefits to society in a variety of uses, including saving lives in the U. S. and across the Carribean and Eastern Pacific, reducing the cost of evacuations, improving supply chain management, and in the transportation and energy production and distribution sectors. The existing literature, however, fails generally to quantify the benefits with rigor sufficient for an academic quality benefit-cost analysis of hurricane forecasts. The paper offers several suggestions for future research to more precisely estimate the benefits attributable to current or improved forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Sutter Daniel & Ewing Bradley T., 2016. "State of Knowledge of Economic Value of Current and Improved Hurricane Forecasts," Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 45-64, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jbvela:v:11:y:2016:i:1:p:45-64:n:6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tang, Christopher S., 2006. "Perspectives in supply chain risk management," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 451-488, October.
    2. Nicole Cornell Sadowski & Daniel Sutter, 2005. "Hurricane Fatalities and Hurricane Damages: Are Safer Hurricanes More Damaging?," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 72(2), pages 422-432, October.
    3. Bradley T. Ewing & Jamie Brown Kruse, 2002. "The Impact of Project Impact on the Wilmington, North Carolina, Labor Market," Public Finance Review, , vol. 30(4), pages 296-309, July.
    4. Fergus, James T, 1999. "Where, When, and by How Much Does Abnormal Weather Affect Housing Construction?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 63-87, January.
    5. Paulo Guimaraes & Frank L. Hefner & Douglas P. Woodward, 1993. "Wealth And Income Effects Of Natural Disasters: An Econometric Analysis Of Hurricane Hugo," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 23(2), pages 97-114, Fall.
    6. Bradley Ewing & Jamie Kruse & Yongsheng Wang, 2007. "Local housing price index analysis in wind-disaster-prone areas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 40(2), pages 463-483, February.
    7. Monica P. Escaleras & Charles A. Register, 2008. "Mitigating Natural Disasters through Collective Action: The Effectiveness of Tsunami Early Warnings," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1017-1034, April.
    8. Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
    9. repec:eee:reensy:v:94:y:2009:i:2:p:199-210 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ewing, Bradley T. & Kruse, Jamie Brown & Thompson, Mark A., 2004. "Employment Dynamics and the Nashville Tornado," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 34(4), pages 1-14.
    11. Taskin, Selda & Lodree Jr., Emmett J., 2010. "Inventory decisions for emergency supplies based on hurricane count predictions," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 66-75, July.
    12. Anbarci, Nejat & Escaleras, Monica & Register, Charles A., 2005. "Earthquake fatalities: the interaction of nature and political economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1907-1933, September.
    13. Kellenberg, Derek K. & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq, 2008. "Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 788-802, May.
    14. Jeffrey Czajkowski & Kevin Simmons & Daniel Sutter, 2011. "An analysis of coastal and inland fatalities in landfalling US hurricanes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(3), pages 1513-1531, December.
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