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What is at Stake in the Doha Round?

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  • Susanna Kinnman
  • Magnus Lodefalk

Abstract

In this study the key elements of the WTO Doha Round are simulated and the main implications for international trade and national income are analysed. Based on negotiation information, three scenarios are designed. All scenarios encompass goods, services and agricultural liberalisation as well as trade facilitation. For goods liberalisation, a so-called Swiss formula is used to cut bound tariff rates. Agricultural tariffs are cut according to a tiered linear formula. Attention has been given to the modelling of trade facilitation. Indirect as well as direct trade transaction costs are modelled. For simulation of the services liberalisation quantitative estimates of indirect trade barriers are used. The simulation results show that all regions in the aggregation gain in the simulated Doha scenarios, with a particularly strong result for developing countries. A conservative estimate is that global income increases with 0.2-0.7 per cent of initial GDP, depending on the level of liberalisation. Trade facilitation contributes the most to these results, with increased market access for non-agricultural goods coming in second place. Overall, simulations indicate the importance of countries' own liberalisation for their national income gains, and the importance of a broad-based round. Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd .

Suggested Citation

  • Susanna Kinnman & Magnus Lodefalk, 2007. "What is at Stake in the Doha Round?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1305-1325, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:30:y:2007:i:8:p:1305-1325
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francois, Joseph & McDonald, Brad & Nordström, Håkan, 1994. "The Uruguay Round: A Global General Equilibrium Assessment," CEPR Discussion Papers 1067, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Piermartini, Roberta & Teh, Robert, 2005. "Demystifying modelling methods for trade policy," WTO Discussion Papers 10, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    3. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christen, Elisabeth & Francois, Joseph & Hoekman, Bernard, 2012. "CGE modeling of market access in services," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6106, The World Bank.
    2. Nguyen, Cuong, 2013. "Poverty, Inequality and Trade Facilitation in Low and Middle Income Countries," MPRA Paper 50312, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mehdi Shafaeddin, 2010. "The Political Economy of WTO with Special Reference to NAMA Negotiations," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 22(2), pages 175-196, April.
    4. Olga Pindyuk & Leon Podkaminer & Sandor Richter, 2008. "Monthly Report No. 1/2008," wiiw Monthly Reports 2008-01, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    5. Persson, Maria, 2008. "Trade Facilitation and the Extensive and Intensive Margins of Trade," Working Papers 2008:13, Lund University, Department of Economics.

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