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Historical urban growth in Europe (1300–1800)

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  • Rafael González‐Val

Abstract

This paper analyses the evolution of the European urban system from a long‐term perspective (from 1300 to 1800). Using the method recently proposed by Clauset, Shalizi, and Newman, a Pareto‐type city size distribution (power law) is rejected from 1300 to 1600. A power law is a plausible model for the city size distribution only in 1700 and 1800, although the log‐normal distribution is another plausible alternative model that we cannot reject. Moreover, the random growth of cities is rejected using parametric and non‐parametric methods. The results reveal a clear pattern of convergent growth in all the periods. Este artículo analiza la evolución del sistema urbano europeo desde una perspectiva a largo plazo (de 1300 a 1800). Mediante la utilización del método propuesto recientemente por Clauset, Shalizi y Newman, se rechaza una distribución del tamaño de las ciudades de tipo Pareto (ley potencial) de 1300 a 1600. La ley potencial es un modelo plausible para la distribución del tamaño de las ciudades tan sólo en 1700 y 1800, aunque la distribución log‐normal es otro modelo alternativo plausible que el estudio no puede rechazar. Además, se rechaza el crecimiento aleatorio de las ciudades mediante el uso de métodos paramétricos y no paramétricos. Los resultados revelan un patrón claro de crecimiento convergente en todos los períodos. 本稿では、長期的な視点(1300年~1800年)からヨーロッパの都市システムの進化を分析する。近年Clauset、 Shalizi、 Newmanらが提唱した方法を使用すると、1300年~1600年ではパレートの法則のタイプの都市規模分布(べき乗則)は却下される。1700年及び1800年の都市規模分布においてのみ、べき乗則が妥当なモデルであるが、対数正規分布は却下することのできない、もう一つの妥当なモデルである。さらに、パラメトリック法およびノンパラメトリック法を使用すると、都市のランダム成長モデルは却下される。結果から、いずれの時代も集積の拡大の明確なパターンが明らかになる。

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael González‐Val, 2019. "Historical urban growth in Europe (1300–1800)," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(2), pages 1115-1136, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:98:y:2019:i:2:p:1115-1136
    DOI: 10.1111/pirs.12365
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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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