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The Effects of US Additional Tariffs in Trump 2.0 on Production and Trade: Evidence From Thailand

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  • Kazunobu Hayakawa
  • Souknilanh Keola
  • Sasatra Sudsawasd

Abstract

This study uses three types of data to quantify the impact of Trump 2.0 in Thailand. First, using product‐level trade data from January 2023 to July 2025, we show that the additional US tariffs have significantly decreased exports of automobiles and some steel/aluminum products to the US. In contrast, exports of auto parts and other items subject to additional tariffs do not change significantly. Second, using industry‐level production data from the same period, we show that the additional US tariffs do not significantly change capacity utilization, while firms appear to be gradually reducing their inventory levels. Finally, using firm‐level export data for the US market in 2024 and 2025 (from January to July), we find that firms importing from China or Chinese firms in Thailand improved their export ranking in the US in 2025. In sum, the impact of US tariffs is currently minimal.

Suggested Citation

  • Kazunobu Hayakawa & Souknilanh Keola & Sasatra Sudsawasd, 2026. "The Effects of US Additional Tariffs in Trump 2.0 on Production and Trade: Evidence From Thailand," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 64(2), pages 157-170, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:deveco:v:64:y:2026:i:2:p:157-170
    DOI: 10.1111/deve.70009
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    1. Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2026. "Introduction to the Special Issue on “Trump 2.0 and the Global Economy”," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 64(2), pages 119-120, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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