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Trade Effects of US Tariffs Under Trump 2.0

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  • Kazunobu Hayakawa

Abstract

This is the first ex‐post study of the effect of the additional tariffs imposed by the second Trump administration (Trump 2.0) on exports to the US. These additional tariffs were announced and started to be enacted in the first and second quarters of 2025. Nevertheless, countries may have continued to export to the US even after these tariffs were imposed, partly because of the view that President Trump could raise tariffs even further in the future. To examine this anticipation effect, we analyze monthly data on exports from 31 countries (excluding China) prior to August 2025. We find significant last‐minute exports just before the additional tariffs were imposed. After that, exports to the US significantly decreased, except for some steel products. We also find that many countries significantly increased exports to other countries, especially to smaller economies, after the US imposed additional tariffs.

Suggested Citation

  • Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2026. "Trade Effects of US Tariffs Under Trump 2.0," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 64(2), pages 121-142, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:deveco:v:64:y:2026:i:2:p:121-142
    DOI: 10.1111/deve.70012
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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