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Protectionism under Trump: The China Shock, Deplorables, and the First White President

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  • Marcus Noland

Abstract

This paper uses USA county‐level electoral data to examine the 2016 turn to protectionism. The hypothesis that support for protectionism was purely a response to globalization is rejected. Exposure to trade competition encouraged a shift to the Republican candidate, but this effect is mediated by race, diversity, education, and age. If the turn toward protectionism is due to economic dislocation, then public policy interventions could mitigate the impact and support the re‐establishment of a political consensus for open trade. If, however, the drivers are identity or cultural values, then the scope for constructive policy intervention is unclear.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcus Noland, 2020. "Protectionism under Trump: The China Shock, Deplorables, and the First White President," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 15(1), pages 31-50, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:15:y:2020:i:1:p:31-50
    DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12274
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. M. Chatib Basri & Hal Hill, 2020. "The Southeast Asian Economies in the Age of Discontent," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 15(2), pages 185-209, July.
    2. Junjie Zhao, 2023. "Breaking the general election effect. The impact of the 2020 US presidential election on Chinese economy and counter strategies," Papers 2304.11518, arXiv.org.
    3. Stefani Branilović & Tibor Rutar, 2025. "Neoliberalism and Globalization Are Not Undermining Democracy: Panel Evidence From More Than 140 Countries, 1980–2022," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(5), pages 797-821, November.
    4. John Kuk & Deborah Seligsohn & Jiakun Jack Zhang, 2022. "The partisan divide in U.S. congressional communications after the China shock," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 494-526, July.
    5. Takatoshi Ito & Kazumasa Iwata & Colin McKenzie & Shujiro Urata, 2020. "Trade Wars: Editors' Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 15(1), pages 1-30, January.
    6. Akihiko Yasui, 2020. "Comment on “Protectionism Under Trump: The China Shock, Deplorables, and the First White President”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 15(1), pages 53-54, January.

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