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Forecasting inflation and its determinants

  • Anca Tanasie
  • Cosmin Fratostiteanu

    (University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Romania)

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    VAR modeling in inflation forecasting has been widely used, and rather successful, even if there have been several critiques of its exactness or accuracy. This paper is structured into two sections. The first one accomplishes a general presentation of VAR modeling in forecasting inflation, and the second is focused on the results of this econometric approach for inflation in Romania. Even if we considered methodologies containing inflation measured using CPI, CORE1 and CORE2, testing will only be performed for the CPI Inflation. Data used in mainly provided by statistics issued by the Romanian National Bank, and computing is accomplished using Mathematica 5.0.

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    File URL: http://feaa.ucv.ro/RTE/010-15.pdf
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    Article provided by University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its journal Revista Tinerior Economisti(The Young Economists Journal).

    Volume (Year): 1 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 10 (April)
    Pages: 110-116

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    Handle: RePEc:aio:rteyej:v:1:y:2008:i:10:p:110-116
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    1. Peter F. Christoffersen & Robert F. Westcott, 1999. "Is Poland Ready for Inflation Targeting?," IMF Working Papers 99/41, International Monetary Fund.
    2. H.M.M. Peeters, 2000. "Achieving Price Stability in the Euro Zone: Monetary or InflationTargeting?," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 43, Netherlands Central Bank.
    3. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1998. "Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Four Countries," NBER Working Papers 6126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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