IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting inflation and its determinants


  • Anca Tanasie
  • Cosmin Fratostiteanu

    (University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Romania)


VAR modeling in inflation forecasting has been widely used, and rather successful, even if there have been several critiques of its exactness or accuracy. This paper is structured into two sections. The first one accomplishes a general presentation of VAR modeling in forecasting inflation, and the second is focused on the results of this econometric approach for inflation in Romania. Even if we considered methodologies containing inflation measured using CPI, CORE1 and CORE2, testing will only be performed for the CPI Inflation. Data used in mainly provided by statistics issued by the Romanian National Bank, and computing is accomplished using Mathematica 5.0.

Suggested Citation

  • Anca Tanasie & Cosmin Fratostiteanu, 2008. "Forecasting inflation and its determinants," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(10), pages 110-116, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:aio:rteyej:v:1:y:2008:i:10:p:110-116

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
    2. H.M.M. Peeters, 1999. "Achieving price stability in the euro zone: Monetary or inflation targeting ?," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 589, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    3. Peter F. Christoffersen & Robert F. Westcott, 1999. "Is Poland Ready for Inflation Targeting?," IMF Working Papers 99/41, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Cindrella Shah & Nilesh Ghonasgi, 2016. "Determinants and Forecast of Price Level in India: a VAR Framework," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 57-86, June.

    More about this item


    inflation; VAR models; forecast; Romania;

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aio:rteyej:v:1:y:2008:i:10:p:110-116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ionascu Costel). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.