IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ahs/journl/v10y2025i2p484-501.html

The Interaction Between Economic Uncertainties and Financial Cycles in Türkiye: Frequency Domain Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ayşegül Şahin

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of the Turkish Economic Uncertainty Index on financial cycles with monthly data for the period 2010:01–2024:12. Financial cycles are represented by a composite index formed by indicators such as banking spread, real housing prices, and the BIST100 index. In order to examine the relationship at the short-, medium-, and long-term levels, Breitung and Candelon (2006) applied a frequency domain symmetric and asymmetric causality test. The findings show that decreases in economic uncertainty significantly affect the positive component of financial cycles in both the short and long term. On the other hand, it was found that the economic uncertainty index tended to decrease in the short term during financial contraction periods. The results indicate that reducing uncertainties not only provides market confidence but also supports persistent financial expansion processes. The study makes an original contribution to the literature by revealing for the first time the impact of policy uncertainty on financial cycles on a frequency-based basis through the asymmetric effect channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayşegül Şahin, 2025. "The Interaction Between Economic Uncertainties and Financial Cycles in Türkiye: Frequency Domain Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Analysis," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 10(2), pages 484-501.
    • Handle: RePEc:ahs:journl:v:10:y:2025:i:2:p:484-501
    DOI: 10.30784/epfad.1666589
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/4730064
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.30784/epfad.1666589?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    2. Ismail O Fasanya & Oluwatomisin J Oyewole & Taofeek Agbatogun, 2021. "How Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Connect With the Volatility Spillovers in Asia-Pacific Markets?," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-6.
    3. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2005. "The IS curve and the transmission of monetary policy: is there a puzzle?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 29-36.
    4. Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2012. "Asymmetric causality tests with an application," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 447-456, August.
    7. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    8. Jos� E. G�mez-Gonz�lez & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & H�ctor Manuel Z�rate & Fernando Tenjo-Galarza, 2014. "Testing for causality between credit and real business cycles in the frequency domain: an illustration," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(10), pages 697-701, July.
    9. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2019. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 31-46.
    10. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    11. Fasanya, Ismail O. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Agbatogun, Taofeek, 2021. "How does economic policy uncertainty connect with the dynamic spillovers between precious metals and bitcoin markets?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Ding & Sun, Weihong & Xu, Liao & Zhang, Xuan, 2023. "Time-frequency relationship between economic policy uncertainty and financial cycle in China: Evidence from wavelet analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Strohsal, Till & Proaño, Christian R. & Wolters, Jürgen, 2019. "Characterizing the financial cycle: Evidence from a frequency domain analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 568-591.
    3. Rivolta, Giulia & Trecroci, Carmine, 2020. "Measuring the effects of U.S. uncertainty and monetary conditions on EMEs' macroeconomic dynamics," MPRA Paper 99403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Jursa, Lukáš & Janků, Jan, 2025. "From the core to the European periphery: Spillover effects of financial cycles," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Khwazi Magubane & Phocenah Nyatanga & Ntokozo Nzimande, 2024. "Financial cycle synchronization in the advanced and systemic middle-income economies: evidence from a dynamic factor model," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 13(7), pages 301-314, October.
    6. Ligonniere, Samuel, 2018. "Trilemma, dilemma and global players," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 20-39.
    7. Rozite, Kristiana & Bezemer, Dirk J. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2019. "Towards a financial cycle for the U.S., 1973–2014," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. Renée Fry-Mckibbin & Jasmine Zheng, 2016. "Effects of the US monetary policy shocks during financial crises – a threshold vector autoregression approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(59), pages 5802-5823, December.
    9. Houari, Oussama, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and business cycles in the US: New insights from the last three decades," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    10. Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2020. "The international effects of global financial uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Li, Xiao-Lin & Yan, Jing & Wei, Xiaohui, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness among monetary policy cycle, financial cycle and business cycle in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 640-652.
    12. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    13. Amat Adarov, 2022. "Financial cycles around the world," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3163-3201, July.
    14. Emre Sakar & Mahmut Unsal Sasmaz & Ahmet Ozen, 2025. "The Nexus Between Tax Revenue, Economic Policy Uncertainty, and Economic Growth: Evidence from G7 Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-34, July.
    15. Kirti, Divya, 2025. "Lending standards and output growth," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    16. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Oscar Jaulin-Mendez & Juan C. Bustos-Peláez, 2019. "The Interdependence Between Commodity-Price and GDP Cycles: A Frequency-Domain Approach," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(3), pages 275-292, September.
    17. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    18. Cem Çakmakli & Hamza Dem I˙rcani & Sumru Altug, 2021. "Modelling of Economic and Financial Conditions for Real‐Time Prediction of Recessions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 663-685, June.
    19. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-021 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Guo, Junjie & Li, Youshu & Shao, Qinglong, 2022. "Cross-category spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty between China and the US: Time and frequency evidence," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    21. Fredj Jawadi & Hachmi Ben Ameur & Stephanie Bigou & Alexis Flageollet, 2022. "Does the Real Business Cycle Help Forecast the Financial Cycle?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(4), pages 1529-1546, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ahs:journl:v:10:y:2025:i:2:p:484-501. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ersan Ersoy (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://epfjournal.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.