Impact of Climatic Factors on Sugarcane Yield and Farmer Income: Evidence from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

This study examined the impact of climatic variability on sugarcane yield and net economic returns in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Pakistan. Cross-sectional data from 180 randomly selected farmers across four distinct climatic zones, along with location specific data, were used to estimate a Ricardian land-rent regression model. The findings revealed a U-shaped quadratic relationship between temperature and both yield and net returns, with a lower threshold of 22°C. Given KP’s relatively lower temperatures compared to tropical regions, projected temperature increases due to climate change are expected to enhance sugarcane yield and profitability in irrigated zones. Rainfall exhibited an inverted U-shaped relationship, with optimal net returns observed at approximately 70 mm. However, monsoon irregularities—characterized by infrequent yet intense rainfall—can disrupt sugarcane productivity. Beyond climatic influences, more labor, high chemical fertilizer use, and efficient irrigation contribute significantly to improved yield and returns. The study emphasizes the need for policy interventions, including farmer awareness programs and training on climate adaptation strategies. Additionally, the promotion of innovative techniques such as chip-bud cultivation and water-efficient irrigation practices are recommended to enhance resilience against climatic uncertainties. Given the increasing water constraints in central and southern KP, targeted water management policies are deemed essential for sustainable large-scale sugarcane production.