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Impact du changement climatique sur l’agriculture : une quantification du biais de prix dans les approches économétriques

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  • Fabrice Ochou
  • Philippe Quirion

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Many econometric studies assess the impact of climate change on agriculture by assuming exogenous agricultural prices. If climate variables influence these prices, the result is a ?price bias,? which existence is recognized but which has never been quantified. We quantify this bias in the case of Burkina Faso, with a panel of 45 provinces and 14 years for the three most widely grown cereals: maize, millet and sorghum. Grain yields are sensitive to weather shocks. If these shocks reduce grain yield by 10%, the price of grain increases by 2-3%. The price bias is significant, since the welfare loss is 20% to 70% higher than that calculated by assuming exogenous prices. The magnitude of the bias depends on the magnitude of the weather shock, the econometric model used and the assumptions made about production costs.
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Suggested Citation

  • Fabrice Ochou & Philippe Quirion, 2021. "Impact du changement climatique sur l’agriculture : une quantification du biais de prix dans les approches économétriques," Post-Print hal-03499241, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03499241
    DOI: 10.3917/reco.731.0043
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03499241v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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