Avian influenza, non-tariff measures and the poultry exports of China

This paper focuses on the direct impact of avian influenza outbreaks and the impact of the consequent non-tariff measures (NTMs) on the international poultry trade. Using monthly export data from China and its 122 poultry importing countries, a randomeffect gravity model has been adopted. Emphasising the agri-food trade in a global value chain context, the research analysis distinguishes between ‘agri-food goods’ (mostly uncooked poultry products) and ‘processed goods’ (mostly cooked poultry products). The results show that domestic avian influenza outbreaks have a significant negative impact on a country’s poultry imports compared with such outbreaks in exporting countries. Moreover, NTMs induced by avian influenza reduce the uncooked poultry trade but temporarily increase the cooked poultry trade. However, with a time-lag, the cooked poultry trade may soon face increasing NTMs. The results also imply that developing countries that attempt to export agri-food products to developed countries should increase and enhance processed food production.