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A Risk-Hedging View to Refinery Capacity Investment in OPEC Countries

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  • Hamed Ghoddusi and Franz Wirl

Abstract

Should oil-rich members of OPEC invest in the oil refinery industry? This is a crucial energy policy question for such economies. We extend theoretical models for a vertical integration strategy within an oil-producing economy, based on a risk-hedging view. The first model highlights the trade-off between return and risk-reduction features of upstream/downstream sectors. The dynamic model demonstrates the volatility of the total budgetary revenue of each sector. Our theory-guided empirical analysis shows that though the average markup in the refining sector is significantly smaller than the profits in the upstream, downstream investment can provide some hedging value. In particular, the more stable and mean-reverting refining margins provide a partial revenue cushion when crude oil prices are low. We discuss the risk-hedging feature of the refinery industry when the crude oil market faces supply versus demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamed Ghoddusi and Franz Wirl, 2021. "A Risk-Hedging View to Refinery Capacity Investment in OPEC Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 67-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej42-1-ghoddusi
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    Cited by:

    1. Karanfil, Fatih & Omgba, Luc Désiré, 2023. "The energy transition and export diversification in oil-dependent countries: The role of structural factors," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PB).
    2. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Moghaddam, Hussein & Wirl, Franz, 2022. "Going downstream – An economical option for oil and gas exporting countries?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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