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Investment Propensities under Carbon Policy Uncertainty

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  • Janne Kettunen, Derek W. Bunn and William Blyth
  • Derek W. Bunn
  • William Blyth

Abstract

Whether companies invest in new power facilities at a particular point in time, or delay, depends upon the perceived evolution of uncertainties and the investors' attitudes to risk and return. With additional risks emerging through climate change mitigation mechanisms, the propensity to invest may increasingly depend upon how each technology and company is exposed to carbon price uncertainty. We approach this by estimating the cumulative probabilities of investment over time in various technologies as a function of behavioral, policy, financial and market assumptions. Using a multistage stochastic optimization model with exogenous uncertainty in carbon price, we demonstrate that detailed financial analysis with real options and risk constraints can make substantial difference to the investment propensities compared to conventional economic analysis. Further, we show that the effects of different carbon policies and market instruments on these decision propensities depend on the characteristics of the companies and may induce market structure evolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Janne Kettunen, Derek W. Bunn and William Blyth & Derek W. Bunn & William Blyth, 2011. "Investment Propensities under Carbon Policy Uncertainty," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 77-118.
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2011v32-01-a04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jano-Ito, Marco A. & Crawford-Brown, Douglas, 2017. "Investment decisions considering economic, environmental and social factors: An actors' perspective for the electricity sector of Mexico," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 92-106.
    2. Brauneis, Alexander & Mestel, Roland & Palan, Stefan, 2013. "Inducing low-carbon investment in the electric power industry through a price floor for emissions trading," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 190-204.
    3. Nahmmacher, Paul & Schmid, Eva & Pahle, Michael & Knopf, Brigitte, 2016. "Strategies against shocks in power systems – An analysis for the case of Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 455-465.
    4. Xiaojia Guo & Alexandros Beskos & Afzal Siddiqui, 2016. "The natural hedge of a gas-fired power plant," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 63-86, January.
    5. Svensson, Elin & Berntsson, Thore, 2014. "The effect of long lead times for planning of energy efficiency and biorefinery technologies at a pulp mill," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 12-16.
    6. Zhou, Mo, 2015. "Adapting sustainable forest management to climate policy uncertainty: A conceptual framework," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 66-74.
    7. Chen, Liang & Kettunen, Janne, 2017. "Is certainty in carbon policy better than uncertainty?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(1), pages 230-243.
    8. repec:eee:resene:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:33-47 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Xiaojia Guo & Alexandros Beskos & Afzal Siddiqui, 2016. "The natural hedge of a gas-fired power plant," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 63-86, January.
    10. Kang, Sang Baum & Létourneau, Pascal, 2016. "Investors’ reaction to the government credibility problem: A real option analysis of emission permit policy risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 96-107.
    11. Michail Chronopoulos, Derek Bunn, and Afzal Siddiqui, 2014. "Optionality and Policymaking in Re-Transforming the British Power Market," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    12. Bunn, Derek W. & Muñoz, José I., 2016. "Supporting the externality of intermittency in policies for renewable energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 594-602.
    13. Hieronymi, Philipp & Schüller, David, 2015. "The Clean-Development Mechanism, stochastic permit prices and energy investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 25-36.
    14. Kettunen, Janne & Bunn, Derek W., 2016. "Risk induced resource dependency in capacity investments," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(3), pages 914-924.
    15. Michail Chronopoulos, Verena Hagspiel, and Stein-Erik Fleten, 2016. "Stepwise Green Investment under Policy Uncertainty," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    16. Munoz, Francisco D. & van der Weijde, Adriaan Hendrik & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & Watson, Jean-Paul, 2017. "Does risk aversion affect transmission and generation planning? A Western North America case study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 213-225.
    17. Blyth, William & Bunn, Derek & Chronopoulos, Michail & Munoz, Jose, 2014. "Systematic Analysis of the Evolution of Electricity and Carbon Markets under Deep Decarbonisation," Discussion Papers 2014/39, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.

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    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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