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Effects of Fiscal Policy on Credit Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Alan J. Auerbach
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Daniel Murphy

Abstract

Credit markets typically freeze in recessions: access to credit declines, and the cost of credit increases. A conventional policy response is to rely on monetary tools to saturate financial markets with liquidity. Given limited space for monetary policy in the current economic conditions, we study how fiscal stimulus can influence local credit markets. Using rich geographical variation in US federal government contracts, we document that, in a local economy, interest rates on consumer loans decrease in response to an expansionary government spending shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Daniel Murphy, 2020. "Effects of Fiscal Policy on Credit Markets," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 119-124, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:110:y:2020:p:119-24
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201074
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    Cited by:

    1. Gherghina Rodica & Câmpeanu Emilia-Mioara & Georgescu Georgiana-Camelia & Grecu Robert-Adrian, 2025. "Determinants of Credit Growth in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 2911-2919.
    2. Frangiamore, Francesco & Matarrese, Marco Maria, 2025. "Government spending multipliers and financial fragility in Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Larsen, Rasmus Bisgaard & Ravn, Søren Hove & Santoro, Emiliano, 2025. "House prices, endogenous productivity, and the effects of government spending shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    4. Rüth, Sebastian K. & Simon, Camilla, 2022. "How do income and the debt position of households propagate fiscal stimulus into consumption?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque, 2024. "The Credit Channel of Public Procurement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    6. Bredemeier, Christian & Juessen, Falko & Schabert, Andreas, 2022. "Why are fiscal multipliers moderate even under monetary accommodation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    7. Hebous, Shafik & Zimmermann, Tom, 2021. "Can government demand stimulate private investment? Evidence from U.S. federal procurement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 178-194.
    8. DeYoung, Robert & Jang, Karen Y., 2023. "Testing dividend tax theory: Firm and industry heterogeneity," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    9. Andrea Cipollini & Francesco Frangiamore, 2023. "Government spending and credit market: Evidence from Italian (NUTS 3) provinces," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(1), pages 3-30, February.
    10. María Pía Olivero & Mikheil Dvalishvili, 2023. "What do fiscal stimulus packages mean for household debt?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(2), pages 282-299, April.
    11. Burger, Anže & Marinč, Matej & Polanec, Sašo & Kotnik, Patricia, 2024. "Public procurement and bank lending," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. Rüth, Sebastian K. & Simon, Camilla, 2020. "How Do Income and the Debt Position of Households Propagate Public into Private Spending?," Working Papers 0676, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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